TSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
$436.39
-31.28 (-6.69%)
▼
5d:
-1.14%
30d:
+7.18%
90d:
+28.94%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
21d
NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)
See why TSM plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
Get Alerted When TSM Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$779.78
Based on 14.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$484.18
9.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSM is currently trading at $436.39, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $405.96 to $443.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.2) is in line with its historical norms (20.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $405.51, while resistance sits at $476.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: TSM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $405.51, while resistance sits at $476.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: TSM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$405.96 -
$443.09
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($473.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$405.96 -
$443.09
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$405.51
Resistance Level
$476.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.20
Wall Street Target
$473.40
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.4%
Profit Margin
46.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
22.2 vs 20.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$448.17
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$460.27
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$472.70
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$436.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.2, Growth: 24.7%)
$846.12
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 24.7%)
$830.07
(+90%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 24.7%)
$705.56
(+62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.60
Bull Case
$871.71
(+100%)
Analyst growth 69.4%, PE expands to 44.4
Base Case
$792.47
(+82%)
Market implied 69.4%, PE stable at 40.3
Bear Case
$318.02
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Che-Chia Wei
BUY
186 shares
2026-04-09
Cleo Fields
BUY
2026-04-09
Bor-Zen Tien
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-22
Featured in Portfolios
TSM is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
Top Rated Semiconductors Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Semiconductors by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MU
Micron Technology Inc |
STRONG BUY
37 analysts |
$946 | 64 BUY |
|
AVGO
Broadcom Inc |
STRONG BUY
46 analysts |
$524 | 52 HOLD |
|
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation |
STRONG BUY
63 analysts |
$299 | 56 HOLD |
|
MRVL
Marvell Technology Group… |
STRONG BUY
37 analysts |
$239 | 54 HOLD |
|
NXPI
NXP Semiconductors NV |
STRONG BUY
32 analysts |
$304 | 56 HOLD |
Advanced TSM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSM price and gamma walls.
