TSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
$421.58
-12.53 (-2.89%)
▼
5d:
-6.69%
30d:
+3.14%
90d:
+13.76%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
1d
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Smart Money Accumulation
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Strength: 9.0/10
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2 traders called TSM this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$817.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$507.83
17.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSM is currently trading at $421.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $421.71 to $452.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.8) is in line with its historical norms (20.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $423.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $490.34 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $423.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $490.34 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$421.71 -
$452.70
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TSM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($490.34)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$421.71 -
$452.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$423.30
Resistance Level
$479.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.78
Wall Street Target
$490.34
(+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.4%
Profit Margin
46.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
20.8 vs 20.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$422.42
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$423.27
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$424.11
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$422.51
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 27.5%)
$916.19
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 27.5%)
$874.06
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 27.5%)
$742.95
(+76%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.50
Bull Case
$842.48
(+100%)
Analyst growth 76.4%, PE expands to 41.5
Base Case
$765.89
(+82%)
Market implied 76.4%, PE stable at 37.8
Bear Case
$295.19
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Che-Chia Wei
BUY
186 shares
2026-04-09
Cleo Fields
BUY
2026-04-09
Bor-Zen Tien
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-22
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