TSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
$473.29
14.09 (3.07%)
▲
5d:
+5.03%
30d:
+13.91%
90d:
+4.76%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
12d
NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TSM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TSM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$871.00
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$540.82
12.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSM is currently trading at $473.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $416.55 to $450.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.9) is in line with its historical norms (20.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $474.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: TSM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $552.26 (+20.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $474.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: TSM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $552.26 (+20.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$416.55 -
$450.48
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
Protect Your Profits
TSM is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.1% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.3% below Wall St target ($552.26)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$416.55 -
$450.48
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$437.06
Resistance Level
$474.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.94
Wall Street Target
$552.26
(+20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
77.4%
Profit Margin
49.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
20.9 vs 20.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$463.33
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$467.50
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$471.71
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$459.46
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 29.5%)
$996.68
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 29.5%)
$970.79
(+111%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 29.5%)
$825.17
(+80%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.46
Bull Case
$817.40
(+78%)
Analyst growth 62.9%, PE expands to 37.3
Base Case
$743.09
(+62%)
Market implied 62.9%, PE stable at 33.9
Bear Case
$310.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Che-Chia Wei
BUY
186 shares
2026-04-09
Cleo Fields
BUY
2026-04-09
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