Is TSM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TSM is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: TSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TSM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TSM to be between $413.01 and $429.05. The current price is $433.24.

What is the analyst price target for TSM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TSM is $551.26. This implies a potential upside of 27.2% from current levels.

TSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Semiconductors & Related Devices

$433.24

5.21 (1.22%) ▲

5d: +3.89%

30d: +0.95%

90d: +2.89%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your TSM Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 15, 2026

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

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Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 3, 2026 at $417.01 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 7.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$871.00

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$540.82

19.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSM is currently trading at $433.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $413.01 to $429.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.8) is in line with its historical norms (20.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 77.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $444.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $551.26 (+27.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $413.01 - $429.05

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 51.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 27.2% below Wall St target ($551.26)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (40/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $413.01 - $429.05

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $407.82

Resistance Level $444.29

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 19.76

Wall Street Target $551.26 (+27.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 36.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 77.4%

Profit Margin 49.9%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 19.8 vs 20.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $428.91 (-1%)

2-Year Target $424.62 (-2%)

3-Year Target $420.37 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 20→20) $433.99 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 29.5%) $959.85 (+122%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 29.5%) $940.33 (+117%)

Bear: (PE: 16.8, Growth: 29.5%) $799.28 (+85%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 31.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.57

Bull Case $760.73 (+76%)

Analyst growth 61.6%, PE expands to 34.7

Base Case $691.57 (+60%)

Market implied 61.6%, PE stable at 31.5

Bear Case $291.06 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.8 to 20.4

Stabilization Target: $447.27 (+3.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.2%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS BUYING

Recent Transactions

Che-Chia Wei BUY 186 shares 2026-04-09

Cleo Fields BUY 2026-04-09

Bor-Zen Tien BUY 1000 shares 2026-03-22

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Semiconductors & Related Devices

About

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, with mid-60s market share in 2024. TSMC was founded in 1987 as a joint venture of Philips, the government of Taiwan, and private investors. It went public in Taiwan in 1994 and as an ADR in the US in 1997. TSMC's scale and high-quality technology allow the firm to generate solid operating margins, even in the highly competitive foundry business. Furthermore, the shift to the fabless business model has created tailwinds for TSMC. The foundry leader has an illustrious customer base, including Apple, AMD, and Nvidia, that looks to apply cutting-edge process technologies to its semiconductor designs. TSMC employs more than 83,000 people.

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $1,496,156,319,811

Employees: 83,825

Listed Since: 1997-10-08

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001046179

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