What is the fair value of TSM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TSM to be between $394.40 and $454.08. The current price is $413.35.

What is the analyst price target for TSM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TSM is $586.69. This implies a potential upside of 41.9% from current levels.

What is the Reddit and retail trader sentiment on TSM?

Retail and Reddit trader sentiment on TSM is currently Bullish. We tracked 1 recent retail mentions (1 Reddit/WSB comments). Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on TSM are bullish (sentiment score +0.25) across 1 tracked comments.

TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. Semiconductors & Related Devices Best Semiconductor Stocks 2026 →

TSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$413.35

+16.87 (+4.25%) ▲

5d: +4.45% 30d: -7.14% 90d: -3.98%

Open in Live Scanner 70/30 Portfolio Builder Earnings: Oct 15, 2026 0d Protect TSM Gains Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET

QUANTITATIVE VERDICT

WAIT

LOW Confidence (77%)

Quality Score

50/100

Position

FAIR

30-Day Fair Range

$394.40 – $454.08

Position: FAIR

Forward P/E & Valuation

17.7x CHEAP

vs 20.1x historical avg

Wall Street Target

$586.69

+41.9% upside

Options IV & Volume

HIGH Vol

HIGH volume confirmation

Support / Resistance

$351.19 / $436.24

Trend: Strong Uptrend

💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line

Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

ℹ️ NEUTRAL: TSM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

See why TSM plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 8, 2026 at $457.99 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$915.34

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$568.36

27.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSM is currently trading at $413.35, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $394.40 to $454.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.7) compared to its historical average (20.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 68.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $351.19, while resistance sits at $436.24. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $586.69 (+41.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $394.40 - $454.08

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 77.1%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $394.40 - $454.08

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support Level $351.19

Resistance Level $436.24

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Nov 11, 2026

Protect Your Profits

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
BULLISH: Trading 41.9% below Wall St target ($586.69)
WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.68

Wall Street Target $586.69 (+41.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 50.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 68.7%

Profit Margin 51.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 17.7 vs 20.1 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $395.99 (-4%)

2-Year Target $379.36 (-8%)

3-Year Target $363.42 (-12%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→20) $413.27 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 33.6%) $1107.43 (+168%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 33.6%) $985.63 (+138%)

Bear: (PE: 15.0, Growth: 33.6%) $837.78 (+103%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 25.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.43

Bull Case $660.98 (+60%)

Analyst growth 51.6%, PE expands to 28.3

Base Case $600.89 (+45%)

Market implied 51.6%, PE stable at 25.7

Bear Case $269.61 (-35%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.7 to 20.1

Stabilization Target: $470.04 (+13.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +13.7%

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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TSM)

Bullish 1 Retail Mentions

Reddit / WSB Comments

Bullish

Last Tracked

Nov 12, 2026

Daily AI digest

AI Retail Discussion Summary: Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on TSM are bullish (sentiment score +0.25) across 1 tracked comments.

Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →

Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Part A: Deep-Dive TSM Research Pages

TSM Technical Chart TSM Price Prediction TSM Intrinsic Value DCF TSM Earnings Date Why is TSM Moving Today? TSM Investment Advisor TSM Fair Price Analyzer TSM Options Chain TSM Options Advisor TSM Options Analysis TSM Competitors

Part B: Tradestie Flagship Market Scanners

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Semiconductors & Related Devices

About

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, with mid-60s market share in 2024. TSMC was founded in 1987 as a joint venture of Philips, the government of Taiwan, and private investors. It went public in Taiwan in 1994 and as an ADR in the US in 1997. TSMC's scale and high-quality technology allow the firm to generate solid operating margins, even in the highly competitive foundry business. Furthermore, the shift to the fabless business model has created tailwinds for TSMC. The foundry leader has an illustrious customer base, including Apple, AMD, and Nvidia, that looks to apply cutting-edge process technologies to its semiconductor designs. TSMC employs more than 83,000 people.

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $1,496,156,319,811

Employees: 83,825

Listed Since: 1997-10-08

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001046179

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