Is TSM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TSM is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: TSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TSM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TSM to be between $422.73 and $463.71. The current price is $412.35.

What is the analyst price target for TSM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TSM is $584.39. This implies a potential upside of 41.7% from current levels.

TSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Semiconductors & Related Devices

$412.35

-19.54 (-4.52%) ▼

5d: -2.34%

30d: -7.66%

90d: +2.22%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your TSM Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 15, 2026 0d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

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Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 8, 2026 at $457.99 · last confirmed Oct 22, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$924.45

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$574.01

28.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSM is currently trading at $412.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $422.73 to $463.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.6) compared to its historical average (20.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 68.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $407.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.

Market Sentiment: TSM scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $584.39 (+41.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $422.73 - $463.71

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 52.4%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.5%)
BULLISH: Trading 41.7% below Wall St target ($584.39)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $422.73 - $463.71

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $407.13

Resistance Level $464.83

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.63

Wall Street Target $584.39 (+41.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 50.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 68.7%

Profit Margin 51.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 17.6 vs 20.3 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $393.38 (-5%)

2-Year Target $375.29 (-9%)

3-Year Target $358.02 (-13%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→20) $412.18 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 33.6%) $1107.43 (+169%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 33.6%) $983.24 (+138%)

Bear: (PE: 15.0, Growth: 33.6%) $835.76 (+103%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 27.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.43

Bull Case $720.02 (+75%)

Analyst growth 51.6%, PE expands to 30.8

Base Case $654.56 (+59%)

Market implied 51.6%, PE stable at 28.0

Bear Case $293.69 (-29%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.6 to 20.3

Stabilization Target: $474.72 (+15.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +15.1%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Semiconductors & Related Devices

About

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, with mid-60s market share in 2024. TSMC was founded in 1987 as a joint venture of Philips, the government of Taiwan, and private investors. It went public in Taiwan in 1994 and as an ADR in the US in 1997. TSMC's scale and high-quality technology allow the firm to generate solid operating margins, even in the highly competitive foundry business. Furthermore, the shift to the fabless business model has created tailwinds for TSMC. The foundry leader has an illustrious customer base, including Apple, AMD, and Nvidia, that looks to apply cutting-edge process technologies to its semiconductor designs. TSMC employs more than 83,000 people.

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $1,496,156,319,811

Employees: 83,825

Listed Since: 1997-10-08

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001046179

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