TW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TW - Tradeweb Markets Inc. Class A Common Stock
$99.18
0.98 (1.00%)
▲
5d:
-2.51%
30d:
-6.16%
90d:
-20.12%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TW appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.9% annual earnings decline despite 39% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TW appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.9% annual earnings decline despite 39% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$170.17
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.66
6.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TW is currently trading at $99.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.25 to $106.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.7) compared to its historical average (26.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $94.25, while resistance sits at $104.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.86 (+36.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $94.25, while resistance sits at $104.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.86 (+36.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$98.25 -
$106.22
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.0% below Wall St target ($134.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$98.25 -
$106.22
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.25
Resistance Level
$104.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.71
Wall Street Target
$134.86
(+36.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.1%
Profit Margin
40.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 26.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$93.33
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$87.82
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$82.64
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→26)
$99.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.7%)
$142.30
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.7, Growth: 12.7%)
$141.88
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 12.7%)
$120.59
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.05
Bull Case
$124.56
(+26%)
Analyst growth 12.8%, PE expands to 27.3
Base Case
$113.24
(+14%)
Market implied 12.8%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$68.28
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 26.1
Stabilization Target:
$119.21
(+20.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Justin Peterson
SELL
21221 shares
2026-04-15
Justin Peterson
SELL
3212 shares
2026-03-18
William Hult
SELL
72450 shares
2026-03-03
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