Tradeweb Markets (TW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TW - Tradeweb Markets Inc. Class A Common Stock
$101.44
-1.03 (-1.01%)
▼
5d:
-3.7%
30d:
-2.39%
90d:
+2.46%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$174.24
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.19
6.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TW is currently trading at $101.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $102.70 to $107.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.1) compared to its historical average (25.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TW scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $123.64 (+21.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TW scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $123.64 (+21.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$102.70 -
$107.24
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($123.64)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$102.70 -
$107.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.00
Resistance Level
$109.46
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.09
Wall Street Target
$123.64
(+21.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.7%
Profit Margin
40.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.1 vs 25.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.28
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$93.29
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$89.47
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→25)
$101.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 13.5%)
$148.34
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.5%)
$135.47
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 13.5%)
$115.15
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.17
Bull Case
$124.15
(+22%)
Analyst growth 10.1%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$112.86
(+11%)
Market implied 10.1%, PE stable at 24.6
Bear Case
$69.68
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.1 to 25.0
Stabilization Target:
$114.82
(+13.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 3:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Justin Peterson
SELL
21221 shares
2026-04-15
Justin Peterson
SELL
3212 shares
2026-03-18
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