TW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TW - Tradeweb Markets Inc. Class A Common Stock
$99.68
1.82 (1.86%)
▲
5d:
-2.67%
30d:
-1.3%
90d:
-17.92%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$175.00
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.66
8.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TW is currently trading at $99.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.19 to $102.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.6) compared to its historical average (25.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $94.25, while resistance sits at $104.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $129.86 (+30.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $94.25, while resistance sits at $104.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $129.86 (+30.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$96.19 -
$102.11
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.3% below Wall St target ($129.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.19 -
$102.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.25
Resistance Level
$104.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.56
Wall Street Target
$129.86
(+30.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.1%
Profit Margin
40.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 25.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.10
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$88.83
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$83.85
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→26)
$99.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.4%)
$146.71
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.6, Growth: 13.4%)
$145.23
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.3, Growth: 13.4%)
$123.44
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.05
Bull Case
$122.89
(+23%)
Analyst growth 14.2%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$111.72
(+12%)
Market implied 14.2%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$66.54
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.6 to 25.7
Stabilization Target:
$118.82
(+19.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Justin Peterson
SELL
21221 shares
2026-04-15
Justin Peterson
SELL
3212 shares
2026-03-18
William Hult
SELL
72450 shares
2026-03-03
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