Tradeweb Markets (TW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TW - Tradeweb Markets Inc. Class A Common Stock
$102.22
-1.08 (-1.05%)
▼
5d:
+1.02%
30d:
-1.21%
90d:
-0.19%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$172.83
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.31
4.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TW is currently trading at $102.22, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.99 to $106.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.3) compared to its historical average (24.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $99.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TW scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $123.64 (+21.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $99.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TW scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $123.64 (+21.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$100.99 -
$106.49
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.0% below Wall St target ($123.64)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 17% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$100.99 -
$106.49
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$99.42
Resistance Level
$105.44
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.26
Wall Street Target
$123.64
(+21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.7%
Profit Margin
40.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 24.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.64
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$95.19
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$91.86
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→25)
$102.35
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.5%)
$149.42
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.5%)
$136.95
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 13.5%)
$116.41
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.19
Bull Case
$124.55
(+22%)
Analyst growth 9.6%, PE expands to 27.1
Base Case
$113.22
(+11%)
Market implied 9.6%, PE stable at 24.7
Bear Case
$70.24
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 24.8
Stabilization Target:
$113.89
(+11.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:20 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Justin Peterson
SELL
21221 shares
2026-04-15
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