TW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TW - Tradeweb Markets Inc. Class A Common Stock
$101.00
0.50 (0.50%)
▲
5d:
-0.99%
30d:
-1.74%
90d:
-9.56%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TW trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TW trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$174.16
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.14
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TW is currently trading at $101.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.21 to $102.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.9) compared to its historical average (25.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $94.29, while resistance sits at $108.75.
Market Sentiment: TW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.00 (+24.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $94.29, while resistance sits at $108.75.
Market Sentiment: TW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.00 (+24.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$96.21 -
$102.97
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.8% below Wall St target ($126.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.21 -
$102.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.29
Resistance Level
$108.76
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.95
Wall Street Target
$126.00
(+24.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.7%
Profit Margin
40.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.0 vs 25.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$96.25
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$91.73
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$87.42
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→25)
$101.16
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 13.4%)
$147.45
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.4%)
$139.25
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 13.4%)
$118.36
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.19
Bull Case
$121.40
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.8%, PE expands to 26.4
Base Case
$110.37
(+9%)
Market implied 9.8%, PE stable at 24.0
Bear Case
$68.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.0 to 25.4
Stabilization Target:
$116.87
(+15.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 9:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Justin Peterson
SELL
21221 shares
2026-04-15
Justin Peterson
SELL
3212 shares
2026-03-18
William Hult
SELL
72450 shares
2026-03-03
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