UMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMC - United Microelectronic Corp.
$18.69
-0.34 (-1.79%)
▼
5d:
-2.04%
30d:
-23.84%
90d:
+43.22%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UMC is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UMC is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.00
Based on -0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMC is currently trading at $18.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.53 to $25.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.3) is in line with its historical norms (19.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.54, while resistance sits at $21.59.
Market Sentiment: UMC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.54, while resistance sits at $21.59.
Market Sentiment: UMC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.53 -
$25.68
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.49)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.53 -
$25.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.54
Resistance Level
$21.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.28
Wall Street Target
$18.49
(-1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
374.6%
Profit Margin
33.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 19.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.21
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$19.75
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$20.30
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.70
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.3, Growth: -4.4%)
$16.34
(+-13%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: -4.4%)
$15.92
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: -4.4%)
$13.53
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 18.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.02
Bull Case
$18.02
(-4%)
Analyst growth -13.9%, PE expands to 20.5
Base Case
$16.38
(-12%)
Market implied -13.9%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$12.94
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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