UPBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPBD - Upbound Group, Inc. Common Stock
$20.30
0.91 (4.69%)
▲
5d:
-1.5%
30d:
+2.06%
90d:
+5.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UPBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UPBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.04
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPBD is currently trading at $20.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.71 to $21.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 4.4) compared to its historical average (4.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.90, while resistance sits at $22.20. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.25 (+39.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.90, while resistance sits at $22.20. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.25 (+39.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.71 -
$21.69
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 39.2% below Wall St target ($28.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.71 -
$21.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.90
Resistance Level
$22.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.43
Wall Street Target
$28.25
(+39.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Profit Margin
1.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
4.4 vs 4.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.93
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$21.58
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$22.25
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.09
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.6%)
$128.47
(+533%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.4, Growth: 10.6%)
$27.45
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: 10.6%)
$23.33
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.54
Bull Case
$42.66
(+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$38.78
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$13.19
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 10:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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