UPBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPBD - Upbound Group, Inc. Common Stock
$18.98
0.29 (1.52%)
▲
5d:
+0.45%
30d:
+6.36%
90d:
+2.79%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPBD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPBD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.74
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPBD is currently trading at $18.98, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.75 to $18.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.9) is in line with its historical norms (4.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.85, while resistance sits at $19.64.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+52.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.85, while resistance sits at $19.64.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+52.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$17.75 -
$18.99
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.5% below Wall St target ($28.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.75 -
$18.99
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.85
Resistance Level
$19.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.93
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+52.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.2%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.9 vs 4.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.62
(0%)
2-Year Target
$18.54
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$18.47
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$18.80
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.3%)
$150.52
(+705%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.9, Growth: 13.3%)
$27.16
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.3, Growth: 13.3%)
$23.09
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$40.30
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$36.64
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$12.46
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.9 to 4.0
Stabilization Target:
$19.02
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 12:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:21 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey J Brown
BUY
2502 shares
2026-01-06
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