VIST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$68.22
-2.23 (-3.17%)
▼
5d:
+2.42%
30d:
+13.02%
90d:
-4.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VIST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VIST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.01
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $68.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.73 to $67.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.4) compared to its historical average (0.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $63.38, while resistance sits at $71.14. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: VIST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.20 (+42.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $63.38, while resistance sits at $71.14. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: VIST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.20 (+42.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$62.73 -
$67.61
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 42.5% below Wall St target ($97.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.73 -
$67.61
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.38
Resistance Level
$71.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.41
Wall Street Target
$97.20
(+42.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
102.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.8%
Profit Margin
23.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.76
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$57.74
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$53.12
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$65.21
(-4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.4%)
$3723.98
(+5359%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 2.4%)
$73.18
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 2.4%)
$62.20
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.60
Bull Case
$154.99
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$140.90
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$47.91
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.5
Stabilization Target:
$83.74
(+22.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 10:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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