VLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLO - Valero Energy Corporation
$350.26
8.75 (2.56%)
▲
5d:
+2.51%
30d:
+14.74%
90d:
+45.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 20, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $298.31 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VLO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VLO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$179.16
Based on -14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLO is currently trading at $350.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $298.23 to $333.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.7) compared to its historical average (13.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 453.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $352.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $352.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$298.23 -
$333.88
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($312.42)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$298.23 -
$333.88
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$291.46
Resistance Level
$352.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 20, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.66
Wall Street Target
$312.42
(-8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
453.5%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 13.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$322.73
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$304.98
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$288.20
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$340.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -32.1%)
$428.37
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: -32.1%)
$248.96
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: -32.1%)
$211.62
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.72
Bull Case
$470.13
(+38%)
Analyst growth 23.4%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$427.39
(+25%)
Market implied 23.4%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$235.46
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 13.8
Stabilization Target:
$404.04
(+18.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 21, 2026 12:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is VLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric A Fisher
SELL
400 shares
2026-03-12
Eric A Fisher
SELL
8311 shares
2026-03-11
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