WCN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WCN - Waste Connections, Inc.
$169.40
1.07 (0.64%)
▲
5d:
+1.87%
30d:
+0.84%
90d:
+8.75%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WCN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WCN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$218.47
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$135.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WCN is currently trading at $169.40, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $165.72 to $170.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.1) is in line with its historical norms (27.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WCN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $164.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WCN scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $200.60 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WCN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $164.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WCN scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $200.60 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$165.72 -
$170.68
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($200.60)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$165.72 -
$170.68
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$164.34
Resistance Level
$170.83
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.11
Wall Street Target
$200.60
(+19.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.1 vs 27.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$167.66
(0%)
2-Year Target
$166.99
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$166.32
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→27)
$168.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.1, Growth: 10.2%)
$225.03
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.2%)
$166.57
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.2%)
$141.58
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.22
Bull Case
$273.08
(+61%)
Analyst growth 47.1%, PE expands to 44.0
Base Case
$248.25
(+47%)
Market implied 47.1%, PE stable at 40.0
Bear Case
$114.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.1 to 27.4
Stabilization Target:
$170.10
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WCN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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