WMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$26.89
-0.65 (-2.36%)
▼
5d:
-6.66%
30d:
-22.55%
90d:
+13.7%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: WMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: WMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.24
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $26.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.39 to $33.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 393.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.12 (+38.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.12 (+38.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$28.39 -
$33.35
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.4% below Wall St target ($38.12)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.7%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.39 -
$33.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.62
Resistance Level
$34.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.06
Wall Street Target
$38.12
(+38.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
393.1%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 16.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.00
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$24.54
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$23.17
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$27.51
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.5%)
$51.46
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 6.5%)
$33.22
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 6.5%)
$28.24
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$60.43
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.0
Base Case
$54.94
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.7
Bear Case
$18.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$32.71
(+18.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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