WMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$27.13
0.03 (0.11%)
▲
5d:
+5.77%
30d:
+1.99%
90d:
-21.54%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.07
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.99
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $27.13, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.75 to $28.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.8) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 393.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WMG scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.88 (+35.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WMG scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.88 (+35.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$25.75 -
$28.13
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.9% below Wall St target ($36.88)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 69/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.75 -
$28.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.52
Resistance Level
$27.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.77
Wall Street Target
$36.88
(+35.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
393.1%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.77
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$24.48
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$23.26
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$27.20
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.6%)
$53.53
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 10.6%)
$36.72
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 10.6%)
$31.21
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.25
Bull Case
$46.99
(+73%)
Analyst growth 57.6%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$42.72
(+58%)
Market implied 57.6%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$18.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$31.73
(+16.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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