XOM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
XOM - Exxon Mobil Corporation
$165.11
-1.04 (-0.63%)
▼
5d:
+3.13%
30d:
+5.24%
90d:
+6.32%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $153.04 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: XOM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: XOM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.22
Based on -1.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XOM is currently trading at $165.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.29 to $161.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 112.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XOM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $168.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: XOM scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XOM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $168.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: XOM scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$149.29 -
$161.54
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding XOM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($168.55)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$149.29 -
$161.54
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$154.45
Resistance Level
$168.64
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.62
Wall Street Target
$168.55
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
112.8%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$165.15
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$164.16
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$163.18
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$166.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -7.5%)
$169.07
(+2%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: -7.5%)
$131.54
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: -7.5%)
$111.81
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.73
Bull Case
$249.48
(+51%)
Analyst growth 37.6%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$226.80
(+37%)
Market implied 37.6%, PE stable at 21.3
Bear Case
$112.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$169.18
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 4:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is XOM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Darrin L Talley
SELL
1080 shares
2026-03-16
Darrin L Talley
SELL
2150 shares
2026-03-02
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