XOM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
XOM - Exxon Mobil Corporation
$137.81
-2.93 (-2.08%)
▼
5d:
-6.0%
30d:
-15.22%
90d:
-12.87%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: XOM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: XOM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$167.08
Based on -0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$103.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XOM is currently trading at $137.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.43 to $155.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XOM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $144.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: XOM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.91 (+23.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XOM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $144.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: XOM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.91 (+23.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$144.43 -
$155.69
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding XOM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.3% below Wall St target ($169.91)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$144.43 -
$155.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.71
Resistance Level
$154.91
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.93
Wall Street Target
$169.91
(+23.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.4%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 16.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.06
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$117.15
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$108.01
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→17)
$137.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -5.9%)
$193.58
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: -5.9%)
$114.96
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: -5.9%)
$97.71
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.94
Bull Case
$277.69
(+102%)
Analyst growth 79.4%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$252.45
(+83%)
Market implied 79.4%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$95.70
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$175.80
(+27.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 21, 2026 3:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is XOM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Darrin L Talley
SELL
1080 shares
2026-03-16
Darrin L Talley
SELL
2150 shares
2026-03-02
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-02-10
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