XPOF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
XPOF - Xponential Fitness, Inc.
$6.74
-0.11 (-1.61%)
▼
5d:
-1.03%
30d:
+12.52%
90d:
-11.32%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: XPOF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: XPOF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.43
9.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XPOF is currently trading at $6.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.07 to $7.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPOF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPOF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$6.07 -
$7.10
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
39th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 39th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($7.21)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.2% growth with -21.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.07 -
$7.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.82
(12.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.24
Resistance Level
$6.12
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.77
Wall Street Target
$7.21
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-21.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Profit Margin
-12.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.96
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$7.18
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$7.41
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.75
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 64.9%)
$56.46
(+738%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 64.9%)
$22.75
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 64.9%)
$19.34
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is XPOF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced XPOF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's XPOF price and gamma walls.
