Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
XPOF - Xponential Fitness, Inc.
$4.11
0.07 (1.73%)
▲
5d:
-16.63%
30d:
-16.46%
90d:
-35.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: XPOF is down 16.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: XPOF is down 16.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.36
35.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XPOF is currently trading at $4.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.57 to $5.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPOF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.77, while resistance sits at $5.60.
Market Sentiment: XPOF scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.10 (+48.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPOF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.77, while resistance sits at $5.60.
Market Sentiment: XPOF scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.10 (+48.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.57 -
$5.88
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding XPOF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.4% below Wall St target ($6.10)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.57 -
$5.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.77
Resistance Level
$5.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.25
Wall Street Target
$6.10
(+48.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Profit Margin
-14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 8.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.79
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$3.49
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$3.22
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$4.12
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 124.0%)
$44.73
(+988%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 124.0%)
$13.87
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 124.0%)
$11.79
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 8.0
Stabilization Target:
$5.26
(+27.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is XPOF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced XPOF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's XPOF price and gamma walls.
