XPOF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
XPOF - Xponential Fitness, Inc.
$6.61
-0.22 (-3.22%)
▼
5d:
+2.16%
30d:
+20.84%
90d:
+16.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: XPOF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: XPOF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.82
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.34
9.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XPOF is currently trading at $6.61, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.20 to $6.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPOF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: XPOF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPOF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: XPOF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$5.20 -
$6.43
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
25th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 25th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($7.21)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.0% growth with -21.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.20 -
$6.43
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.79
(12.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.24
Resistance Level
$6.12
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.61
Wall Street Target
$7.21
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-21.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Profit Margin
-12.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.81
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$7.01
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$7.22
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.63
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 64.9%)
$56.46
(+754%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 64.9%)
$22.31
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 64.9%)
$18.96
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is XPOF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced XPOF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's XPOF price and gamma walls.
