Is AAL stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AAL is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of AAL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AAL to be between $14.30 and $15.92. The current price is $13.82.

What is the analyst price target for AAL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AAL is $18.95. This implies a potential upside of 37.1% from current levels.

AAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AAL - American Airlines Group Inc.

AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED

$13.82

0.30 (2.22%) ▲

5d: -6.81%

30d: +1.95%

90d: +1.69%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 22, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 10, 2026 at $15.47 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$29.01

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$18.01

23.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AAL is currently trading at $13.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.30 to $15.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.95 (+37.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $14.30 - $15.92

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 37.1% below Wall St target ($18.95)
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $14.30 - $15.92

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $13.43

Resistance Level $15.76

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 5.66

Wall Street Target $18.95 (+37.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 16.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -88.2%

Profit Margin -0.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 5.7 vs 6.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $13.49 (-2%)

2-Year Target $13.16 (-5%)

3-Year Target $12.85 (-7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 6→6) $13.85 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 2250.7%) $165.44 (+1097%)

Base: (SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 2250.7%) $46.64 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 4.8, Growth: 2250.7%) $39.65 (+187%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 6.1

Stabilization Target: $14.90 (+7.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +7.8%

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced AAL Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAL price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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