Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACAD - Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$18.62
-0.79 (-4.07%)
▼
5d:
-5.67%
30d:
-32.34%
90d:
-28.16%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
20d
Get Alerted When ACAD Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACAD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACAD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.31
31.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACAD is currently trading at $18.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.83 to $27.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (27.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.95 (+71.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.95 (+71.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.83 -
$27.14
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ACAD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 71.6% below Wall St target ($31.95)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.83 -
$27.14
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.39
Resistance Level
$20.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.61
Wall Street Target
$31.95
(+71.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Profit Margin
33.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 27.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.83
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$15.22
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$13.76
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→28)
$18.62
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 51.6%)
$62.84
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 51.6%)
$60.56
(+225%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 51.6%)
$51.48
(+177%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.27
Bull Case
$10.68
(-43%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$9.71
(-48%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$13.20
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 27.9
Stabilization Target:
$25.21
(+35.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 14, 2026 8:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ACAD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Biotechnology Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Biotechnology by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
KYMR
Kymera Therapeutics Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$139 | 65 BUY |
|
ARGX
argenx NV ADR |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$1180 | 45 HOLD |
|
IRD
Opus Genetics, Inc. |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$13 | 53 HOLD |
|
ORKA
Oruka Therapeutics, Inc. |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$155 | 74 BUY |
|
SYRE
Spyre Therapeutics Inc. |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$120 | 56 HOLD |
Advanced ACAD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACAD price and gamma walls.
