ACAD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACAD - Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$28.24
-0.14 (-0.49%)
▼
5d:
-3.32%
30d:
+10.18%
90d:
+27.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACAD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACAD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.63
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACAD is currently trading at $28.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.06 to $28.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 31.5) compared to its historical average (27.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.43, while resistance sits at $29.85.
Market Sentiment: ACAD scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.50 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.43, while resistance sits at $29.85.
Market Sentiment: ACAD scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.50 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.06 -
$28.04
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ACAD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($33.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.06 -
$28.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.43
Resistance Level
$29.85
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.51
Wall Street Target
$33.50
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Profit Margin
33.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
31.5 vs 27.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.48
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$30.78
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$32.13
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.5, Growth: 50.4%)
$95.31
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 50.4%)
$61.18
(+117%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 50.4%)
$52.00
(+84%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.23
Bull Case
$16.20
(-43%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$14.73
(-48%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$20.03
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 15, 2026 7:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACAD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James Kihara
SELL
1030 shares
2026-04-07
Mark C Schneyer
SELL
2709 shares
2026-04-07
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Advanced ACAD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACAD price and gamma walls.
