ACAD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACAD - Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$25.50
-0.72 (-2.75%)
▼
5d:
-1.05%
30d:
+20.0%
90d:
+17.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACAD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACAD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.37
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.93
5.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACAD is currently trading at $25.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.16 to $25.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.4) is in line with its historical norms (27.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACAD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.65 (+24.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACAD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.65 (+24.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.16 -
$25.21
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.5% below Wall St target ($32.65)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with 9.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.16 -
$25.21
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.94
Resistance Level
$26.51
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.43
Wall Street Target
$32.65
(+24.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.8%
Profit Margin
34.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
29.4 vs 27.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.90
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$27.60
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$28.32
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.27
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.4, Growth: 133.6%)
$88.49
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 133.6%)
$65.49
(+150%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 133.6%)
$55.66
(+112%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.24
Bull Case
$14.53
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$13.21
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$17.96
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 3:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACAD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James Kihara
SELL
1030 shares
2026-04-07
Mark C Schneyer
SELL
2709 shares
2026-04-07
Jennifer J Rhodes
SELL
6950 shares
2026-02-09
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Advanced ACAD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACAD price and gamma walls.
