ADP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADP - Automatic Data Processing
$277.62
-5.91 (-2.08%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.43%
30d:
+1.5%
90d:
+19.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$340.11
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$211.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $277.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $267.20 to $282.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.8) compared to its historical average (19.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $276.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADP scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $276.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADP scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$267.20 -
$282.50
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($287.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$267.20 -
$282.50
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$276.45
Resistance Level
$288.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.75
Wall Street Target
$287.60
(+3.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.7% premium
PE vs Historical
22.8 vs 19.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$290.67
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$304.33
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$318.63
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â20)
PE COMPRESSION
$277.31
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 10.2%)
$371.17
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.2%)
$330.05
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 10.2%)
$280.54
(+1%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.94
Bull Case
$347.89
(+25%)
Analyst growth 11.5%, PE expands to 28.5
Base Case
$316.26
(+14%)
Market implied 11.5%, PE stable at 25.9
Bear Case
$192.80
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 04, 2026 8:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Richard McCormick
BUY
2026-03-19
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