Is ADP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ADP is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of ADP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ADP to be between $264.51 and $295.52. The current price is $296.01.

What is the analyst price target for ADP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ADP is $297.93. This implies a potential upside of 0.6% from current levels.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ADP - Automatic Data Processing

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION

$296.01

-2.77 (-0.93%) ▼

5d: +0.99%

30d: +13.74%

90d: +9.6%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your ADP Gains

Analysis Updated: Nov 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 28, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $293.84 · last confirmed Nov 2, 2026

Strength: 4.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$348.70

Based on 7.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$216.52

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $296.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $264.51 to $295.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.3) compared to its historical average (20.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $282.73, while resistance sits at $309.40.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $264.51 - $295.52

Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 45.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($297.93)
NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.1% growth which is achievable
WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $264.51 - $295.52

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $282.73

Resistance Level $309.40

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Nov 3, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 24.26

Wall Street Target $297.93 (+0.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 6.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 13.7%

Profit Margin 20.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +6.1% premium

PE vs Historical 24.3 vs 20.3 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +6.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $314.07 (+6%)

2-Year Target $333.22 (+13%)

3-Year Target $353.55 (+19%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 24→20) PE COMPRESSION $295.87 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 24.3, Growth: 10.2%) $395.76 (+34%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.2%) $324.01 (+10%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.2%) $275.41 (-7%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 26.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.28

Bull Case $355.55 (+20%)

Analyst growth 8.2%, PE expands to 29.1

Base Case $323.23 (+9%)

Market implied 8.2%, PE stable at 26.5

Bear Case $203.17 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: November 03, 2026 9:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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