Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADP - Automatic Data Processing
$304.16
-3.78 (-1.23%)
▼
5d:
+5.28%
30d:
+15.6%
90d:
+19.29%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$346.98
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$215.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $304.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $260.96 to $287.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.9) compared to its historical average (20.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $309.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $309.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$260.96 -
$287.19
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
15.7%
Protect Your Profits
ADP is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.9% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($286.40)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.3% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$260.96 -
$287.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$271.96
Resistance Level
$309.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.93
Wall Street Target
$286.40
(-5.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.3% premium
PE vs Historical
24.9 vs 20.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$326.36
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$350.19
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$375.75
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$304.52
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$406.65
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$324.01
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$275.41
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.94
Bull Case
$377.84
(+24%)
Analyst growth 11.5%, PE expands to 31.0
Base Case
$343.49
(+13%)
Market implied 11.5%, PE stable at 28.2
Bear Case
$209.40
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 9:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADP price and gamma walls.
