ADP
Automatic Data Processing
SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION
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Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$307.92
+1.56 (+0.51%)
▲
5d:
+0.25%
30d:
+9.85%
90d:
+12.81%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
0d
Protect ADP Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (23%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$275.45 – $304.50
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
25.2x
STRETCHED
vs 20.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$298.27
-3.1% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$292.00 / $311.89
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$352.14
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$218.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $307.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $275.45 to $304.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.2) compared to its historical average (20.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $311.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $311.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$275.45 -
$304.50
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$275.45 -
$304.50
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$292.00
Resistance Level
$311.89
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($298.27)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.2% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.23
Wall Street Target
$298.27
(-3.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Profit Margin
20.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.2% premium
PE vs Historical
25.2 vs 20.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$330.09
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$353.86
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$379.33
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$308.18
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.2, Growth: 10.2%)
$411.68
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$324.01
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$275.41
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.28
Bull Case
$364.57
(+18%)
Analyst growth 8.2%, PE expands to 29.9
Base Case
$331.43
(+8%)
Market implied 8.2%, PE stable at 27.2
Bear Case
$208.32
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ADP)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
ADP, a leading payroll processing company, is set to report earnings tomorrow, with bullish sentiment from traders expecting continued EPS beat record. The latest article discusses the investment case for Paychex (PAYX), a competitor of ADP, and its recurring revenue model.
Key Retail Themes:
ADP's earnings report
Recurring revenue business model
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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