Is ADP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ADP is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of ADP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ADP to be between $268.92 and $282.20. The current price is $268.26.

What is the analyst price target for ADP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ADP is $287.60. This implies a potential upside of 7.2% from current levels.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ADP - Automatic Data Processing

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION

$268.26

0.93 (0.35%) ▲

5d: -5.39%

30d: -0.4%

90d: +18.82%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your ADP Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $277.62 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 5.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$341.83

Based on 7.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$212.25

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $268.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $268.92 to $282.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.0) compared to its historical average (19.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $264.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: ADP scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $268.92 - $282.20

Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 53.3%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($287.60)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $268.92 - $282.20

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $264.86

Resistance Level $288.00

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 21.98

Wall Street Target $287.60 (+7.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 6.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 9.8%

Profit Margin 20.1%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.4% premium

PE vs Historical 22.0 vs 19.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $277.38 (+3%)

2-Year Target $286.81 (+7%)

3-Year Target $296.56 (+11%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 22→20) PE COMPRESSION $268.46 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.0, Growth: 10.2%) $358.66 (+34%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.2%) $329.07 (+23%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.2%) $279.71 (+4%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.93

Bull Case $328.31 (+22%)

Analyst growth 11.6%, PE expands to 26.9

Base Case $298.46 (+11%)

Market implied 11.6%, PE stable at 24.5

Bear Case $181.78 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-23

Richard McCormick BUY 2026-03-19

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