Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADP - Automatic Data Processing
$257.68
-6.28 (-2.38%)
▼
5d:
-2.27%
30d:
-8.35%
90d:
+7.6%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ADP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$343.55
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$213.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $257.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $263.54 to $281.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.1) is in line with its historical norms (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $256.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADP scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $287.60 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $256.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADP scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $287.60 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$263.54 -
$281.51
Company Quality Score
72/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($287.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$263.54 -
$281.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$256.51
Resistance Level
$273.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.12
Wall Street Target
$287.60
(+11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 20.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$262.32
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$267.04
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$271.85
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$257.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.1, Growth: 10.2%)
$344.51
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.2%)
$332.82
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 10.2%)
$282.90
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.94
Bull Case
$323.87
(+26%)
Analyst growth 11.5%, PE expands to 26.5
Base Case
$294.43
(+14%)
Market implied 11.5%, PE stable at 24.1
Bear Case
$179.49
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADP price and gamma walls.
