AGNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGNC - AGNC Investment Corp. Common Stock
$10.89
-0.03 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
-0.64%
30d:
+3.13%
90d:
+6.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGNC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AGNC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.31
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGNC is currently trading at $10.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.67 to $11.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGNC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGNC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.67 -
$11.10
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.06)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.67 -
$11.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.64
Resistance Level
$11.13
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.25
Wall Street Target
$11.06
(+1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
546.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
772.4%
Profit Margin
94.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.98
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$11.06
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$11.15
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.92
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -5.2%)
$25.69
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: -5.2%)
$9.29
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: -5.2%)
$7.89
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.98
Bull Case
$9.11
(-16%)
Analyst growth -24.2%, PE expands to 6.1
Base Case
$8.28
(-24%)
Market implied -24.2%, PE stable at 5.5
Bear Case
$7.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 7:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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