ALK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALK - Alaska Air Group, Inc.
$41.87
-2.04 (-4.65%)
▼
5d:
-8.92%
30d:
+13.28%
90d:
-13.4%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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1 traders called ALK this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.37
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALK is currently trading at $41.87, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.63 to $43.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (6.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.15, while resistance sits at $47.90. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.50 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.15, while resistance sits at $47.90. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.50 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.63 -
$43.37
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 37.3% below Wall St target ($57.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.63 -
$43.37
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.15
Resistance Level
$47.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.62
Wall Street Target
$57.50
(+37.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.3%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 6.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.74
(0%)
2-Year Target
$41.62
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$41.49
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$41.99
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (94x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 93.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.49
Bull Case
$101.13
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 103.2
Base Case
$91.94
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 93.8
Bear Case
$31.26
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 79.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 6.7
Stabilization Target:
$42.37
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 04, 2026 1:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew R Harrison
SELL
5500 shares
2026-02-18
Shane R Tackett
SELL
24000 shares
2026-02-18
Andrew R Harrison
SELL
14500 shares
2026-02-13
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Advanced ALK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALK price and gamma walls.
