ALSN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALSN - ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC.
$133.23
4.11 (3.18%)
▲
5d:
+5.85%
30d:
+11.36%
90d:
+22.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALSN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALSN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$182.61
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALSN is currently trading at $133.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $115.45 to $125.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $134.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALSN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $134.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALSN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$115.45 -
$125.68
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.0% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($139.40)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.3% growth with 92.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$115.45 -
$125.68
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.42
Resistance Level
$134.14
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.79
Wall Street Target
$139.40
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
92.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.1%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$137.63
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$142.17
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$146.86
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$133.25
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.3%)
$329.63
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 13.3%)
$193.68
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 13.3%)
$164.63
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.53
Bull Case
$245.73
(+84%)
Analyst growth 73.0%, PE expands to 21.8
Base Case
$223.39
(+68%)
Market implied 73.0%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$87.80
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALSN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric C Scroggins
SELL
1313 shares
2026-03-09
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