ALSN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALSN - ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC.
$114.54
-0.90 (-0.78%)
▼
5d:
-6.38%
30d:
-2.49%
90d:
-14.75%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALSN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALSN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$188.50
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.04
2.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALSN is currently trading at $114.54, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $113.45 to $119.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $112.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALSN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.30 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $112.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALSN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.30 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$113.45 -
$119.85
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($137.30)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$113.45 -
$119.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$112.29
Resistance Level
$123.58
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.04
Wall Street Target
$137.30
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
83.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.4%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$112.25
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$110.00
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$107.80
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$114.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 14.3%)
$353.02
(+208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 14.3%)
$171.06
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 14.3%)
$145.40
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.48
Bull Case
$223.45
(+95%)
Analyst growth 76.0%, PE expands to 19.6
Base Case
$203.14
(+77%)
Market implied 76.0%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$78.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$122.01
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 2:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALSN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric C Scroggins
SELL
1313 shares
2026-03-09
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