ALSN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALSN - ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC.
$121.12
2.02 (1.70%)
▲
5d:
+3.21%
30d:
+11.79%
90d:
+9.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALSN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALSN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$189.30
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALSN is currently trading at $121.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $111.56 to $119.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $123.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALSN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.40 (+13.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $123.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALSN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.40 (+13.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$111.56 -
$119.00
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($137.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$111.56 -
$119.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.41
Resistance Level
$123.01
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.68
Wall Street Target
$137.40
(+13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
83.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.4%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$120.88
(0%)
2-Year Target
$120.64
(0%)
3-Year Target
$120.39
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$121.79
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.3%)
$368.65
(+204%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 14.3%)
$180.70
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 14.3%)
$153.60
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.43
Bull Case
$231.15
(+91%)
Analyst growth 76.4%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$210.14
(+74%)
Market implied 76.4%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$80.99
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.7 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$122.53
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 8:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALSN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric C Scroggins
SELL
1313 shares
2026-03-09
John Coll
SELL
1791 shares
2025-12-31
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