ALSN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALSN - ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC.
$116.07
1.86 (1.63%)
▲
5d:
-0.45%
30d:
+1.98%
90d:
-9.68%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALSN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALSN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.54
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.45
0.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALSN is currently trading at $116.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.18 to $119.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $109.70, while resistance sits at $123.39.
Market Sentiment: ALSN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.40 (+20.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $109.70, while resistance sits at $123.39.
Market Sentiment: ALSN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.40 (+20.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$114.18 -
$119.92
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.3% below Wall St target ($137.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.18 -
$119.92
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$109.71
Resistance Level
$123.39
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.07
Wall Street Target
$137.40
(+20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
83.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.4%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$111.81
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$109.46
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$107.16
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$113.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.3%)
$368.65
(+223%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 14.3%)
$170.39
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 14.3%)
$144.83
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.54
Bull Case
$217.12
(+90%)
Analyst growth 73.5%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$197.38
(+73%)
Market implied 73.5%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$77.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$121.39
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALSN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric C Scroggins
SELL
1313 shares
2026-03-09
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