ALLISON TRANSMISSION (ALSN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALSN - ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC.
$117.97
1.69 (1.45%)
▲
5d:
+3.61%
30d:
-6.9%
90d:
+1.17%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Get Alerted When ALSN Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALSN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALSN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$184.17
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$114.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALSN is currently trading at $117.97, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $115.85 to $128.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALSN scores 86/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $140.40 (+19.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALSN scores 86/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $140.40 (+19.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$115.85 -
$128.72
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (86/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($140.40)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 22% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$115.85 -
$128.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.03
Resistance Level
$120.97
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.42
Wall Street Target
$140.40
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
92.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.1%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$116.91
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$115.86
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$114.81
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$117.86
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.6%)
$338.56
(+187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 13.6%)
$172.99
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 13.6%)
$147.04
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.33
Bull Case
$228.69
(+94%)
Analyst growth 78.8%, PE expands to 20.2
Base Case
$207.90
(+76%)
Market implied 78.8%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$79.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$121.10
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ALSN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Auto Parts Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Auto Parts by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AZO
AutoZone Inc |
STRONG BUY
29 analysts |
$3716 | 45 HOLD |
|
APTV
Aptiv PLC |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$67 | 63 BUY |
|
ORLY
O’Reilly Automotive Inc |
STRONG BUY
28 analysts |
$108 | 49 HOLD |
|
MBLY
Mobileye Global Inc. Cla… |
BUY
28 analysts |
$12 | 38 SELL |
|
HSAI
Hesai Group Sponsored ADR |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$28 | 61 BUY |
