ALLISON TRANSMISSION (ALSN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALSN - ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC.
$126.94
-0.60 (-0.47%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.17%
30d:
+2.7%
90d:
+9.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALSN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALSN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$182.61
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALSN is currently trading at $126.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.14 to $130.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $120.58, while resistance sits at $132.41.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $120.58, while resistance sits at $132.41.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$122.14 -
$130.20
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($139.40)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with 92.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$122.14 -
$130.20
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.58
Resistance Level
$132.41
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.24
Wall Street Target
$139.40
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
92.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.1%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.84
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$130.78
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$132.74
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$126.41
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.3%)
$331.27
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 13.3%)
$184.54
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 13.3%)
$156.86
(+24%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.29
Bull Case
$251.99
(+99%)
Analyst growth 79.6%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$229.08
(+81%)
Market implied 79.6%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$86.73
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALSN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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