Is AMAT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AMAT is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMAT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of AMAT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AMAT to be between $499.20 and $563.14. The current price is $496.17.

What is the analyst price target for AMAT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AMAT is $641.03. This implies a potential upside of 29.2% from current levels.

AMAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMAT - Applied Materials Inc

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$496.17

-18.16 (-3.53%) ▼

5d: -9.48%

30d: -12.11%

90d: +21.94%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your AMAT Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 13, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 14, 2026 at $508.02 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMAT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$889.27

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$552.17

10.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMAT is currently trading at $496.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $499.20 to $563.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.2) is in line with its historical norms (28.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $488.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.

Market Sentiment: AMAT scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $641.03 (+29.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $499.20 - $563.14

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 52.4%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
BULLISH: Trading 29.2% below Wall St target ($641.03)
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $499.20 - $563.14

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $488.55

Resistance Level $563.76

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 19, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 27.16

Wall Street Target $641.03 (+29.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 24.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 42.8%

Profit Margin 30.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 27.2 vs 28.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $486.74 (-2%)

2-Year Target $477.49 (-4%)

3-Year Target $468.42 (-6%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 27→29) $496.65 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 27.2, Growth: 42.9%) $1446.68 (+192%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 42.9%) $1068.90 (+115%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 42.9%) $908.56 (+83%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 44.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.62

Bull Case $889.36 (+79%)

Analyst growth 57.2%, PE expands to 48.7

Base Case $808.51 (+63%)

Market implied 57.2%, PE stable at 44.3

Bear Case $349.74 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.2 to 28.8

Stabilization Target: $526.07 (+6.0%)

PE Expansion Potential: +6.0%

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Last updated: August 20, 2026 7:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-10

John Boozman SELL 2026-02-27

Judy Bruner SELL 2500 shares 2026-02-25

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