AMAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMAT - Applied Materials Inc
$500.77
10.72 (2.19%)
▲
5d:
+11.72%
30d:
+27.95%
90d:
+39.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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2 traders called AMAT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AMAT is 9.4% above its trading range ($457.81). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AMAT is 9.4% above its trading range ($457.81). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$787.20
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$488.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMAT is currently trading at $500.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $399.70 to $457.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 31.0) compared to its historical average (26.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $508.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $508.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$399.70 -
$457.81
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
Protect Your Profits
AMAT is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($511.17)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.9% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$399.70 -
$457.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$415.85
Resistance Level
$508.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.97
Wall Street Target
$511.17
(+2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.5%
Profit Margin
29.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
31.0 vs 26.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$525.31
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$551.05
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$578.05
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$500.22
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.0, Growth: 31.9%)
$1149.04
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 31.9%)
$812.91
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 31.9%)
$690.97
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.62
Bull Case
$750.74
(+67%)
Analyst growth 52.3%, PE expands to 46.4
Base Case
$682.49
(+52%)
Market implied 52.3%, PE stable at 42.2
Bear Case
$304.81
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-10
John Boozman
SELL
2026-02-27
Judy Bruner
SELL
2500 shares
2026-02-25
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