AMBA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBA - Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares
$74.59
-0.23 (-0.31%)
▼
5d:
-10.7%
30d:
+4.61%
90d:
-2.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMBA is down 10.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMBA is down 10.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.87
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBA is currently trading at $74.59, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.16 to $82.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 111.2) is in line with its historical norms (103.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $71.78, while resistance sits at $89.44.
Market Sentiment: AMBA scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $95.00 (+27.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $71.78, while resistance sits at $89.44.
Market Sentiment: AMBA scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $95.00 (+27.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$68.16 -
$82.67
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMBA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($95.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.16 -
$82.67
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$71.78
Resistance Level
$89.44
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 19, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
111.23
Wall Street Target
$95.00
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Profit Margin
-17.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
111.2 vs 103.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.45
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$78.37
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$80.33
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 111→103)
PE COMPRESSION
$74.67
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 111.2, Growth: 12.5%)
$106.30
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 12.5%)
$19.18
(-74%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 12.5%)
$16.30
(-78%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 20, 2026 7:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Alexander Young
SELL
1971 shares
2026-04-21
Chan W Lee
SELL
3641 shares
2026-03-19
Chi-Hong Ju
SELL
2155 shares
2026-03-19
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Advanced AMBA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMBA price and gamma walls.
