Is ASML stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ASML is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: ASML shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ASML stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ASML to be between $1679.50 and $1862.22. The current price is $1629.00.

What is the analyst price target for ASML?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ASML is $2137.07. This implies a potential upside of 31.2% from current levels.

ASML Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ASML - ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

$1629.00

-22.44 (-1.36%) ▼

5d: -7.29%

30d: -11.61%

90d: +13.2%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 14, 2026

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

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Smart Money Accumulation

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Strength: 6.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASML shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$2487.16

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1544.33

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ASML is currently trading at $1629.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1679.50 to $1862.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 31.9) compared to its historical average (39.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 28.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ASML is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1530.64, while resistance sits at $1823.88.

Market Sentiment: ASML has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2137.07 (+31.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $1679.50 - $1862.22

Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 31.2% below Wall St target ($2137.07)
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.3%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $1679.50 - $1862.22

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $1530.64

Resistance Level $1823.88

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Jul 31, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 31.89

Wall Street Target $2137.07 (+31.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 21.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 28.5%

Profit Margin 30.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 31.9 vs 39.6 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $1516.60 (-7%)

2-Year Target $1411.95 (-13%)

3-Year Target $1314.53 (-19%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 32→40) $1632.53 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 31.9, Growth: 34.3%) $3942.70 (+142%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 34.3%) $2563.25 (+57%)

Bear: (PE: 17.6, Growth: 34.3%) $2178.76 (+34%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 34.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $46.75

Bull Case $1967.02 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 36.6

Base Case $1629.00 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 34.8

Bear Case $1246.18 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 31.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.9 to 39.6

Stabilization Target: $2023.08 (+24.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +24.2%

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Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 AM

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ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

About

ASML is the leader in photolithography systems used in manufacturing semiconductors. Photolithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photo mask onto a semiconductor wafer. The latest technological advances in this segment allow chipmakers to continually increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a high portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. ASML outsources the manufacturing of most of its parts, acting like an assembler. ASML's main clients are TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $389,416,916,894

Employees: 44,127

Listed Since: 1995-03-15

Website: Visit

CIK: 0000937966

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