Is ASML stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ASML is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: ASML is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of ASML stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ASML to be between $1567.56 and $1843.40. The current price is $1778.46.

What is the analyst price target for ASML?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ASML is $1746.56. This implies a potential upside of -1.8% from current levels.

ASML Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ASML - ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

$1778.46

-150.79 (-7.82%) ▼

5d: -6.03%

30d: +11.71%

90d: +29.85%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 15, 2026 20d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

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Smart Money Accumulation

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Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASML is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$2040.02

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1266.69

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ASML is currently trading at $1778.46, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1567.56 to $1843.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.4) is in line with its historical norms (39.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ASML is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1676.28, while resistance sits at $1959.04. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.8% recently.

Market Sentiment: ASML has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $1567.56 - $1843.40

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 67.6%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.8%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1746.56)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.0% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $1567.56 - $1843.40

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $1676.28

Resistance Level $1959.04

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Jun 23, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 42.44

Wall Street Target $1746.56 (-1.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 13.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 19.2%

Profit Margin 29.7%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.3% premium

PE vs Historical 42.4 vs 39.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $1819.36 (+2%)

2-Year Target $1861.21 (+5%)

3-Year Target $1904.02 (+7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 42→40) PE COMPRESSION $1781.01 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 42.4, Growth: 32.5%) $4139.62 (+133%)

Base: (SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 32.5%) $2124.33 (+19%)

Bear: (PE: 18.5, Growth: 32.5%) $1805.68 (+2%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (65x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 64.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.71

Bull Case $2993.14 (+68%)

Analyst growth 41.0%, PE expands to 71.4

Base Case $2721.04 (+53%)

Market implied 41.0%, PE stable at 64.9

Bear Case $1311.89 (-26%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 55.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

About

ASML is the leader in photolithography systems used in manufacturing semiconductors. Photolithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photo mask onto a semiconductor wafer. The latest technological advances in this segment allow chipmakers to continually increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a high portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. ASML outsources the manufacturing of most of its parts, acting like an assembler. ASML's main clients are TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $389,416,916,894

Employees: 44,127

Listed Since: 1995-03-15

Website: Visit

CIK: 0000937966

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