ASIC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASIC - Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
$26.33
-0.39 (-1.46%)
▼
5d:
+4.11%
30d:
+6.86%
90d:
+32.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASIC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASIC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.71
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASIC is currently trading at $26.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.67 to $25.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.68, while resistance sits at $27.22.
Market Sentiment: ASIC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.10 (+10.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.68, while resistance sits at $27.22.
Market Sentiment: ASIC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.10 (+10.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$23.67 -
$25.76
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
25.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($29.10)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.6% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.67 -
$25.76
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.68
Resistance Level
$27.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.45
Wall Street Target
$29.10
(+10.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.8%
Profit Margin
20.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 8.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.07
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$29.92
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$31.89
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.9%)
$70.86
(+169%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 11.9%)
$36.90
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 11.9%)
$30.36
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.15
Bull Case
$34.44
(+31%)
Analyst growth 17.2%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$31.31
(+19%)
Market implied 17.2%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$18.17
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 27, 2026 9:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASIC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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