Ategrity Specialty Insurance (ASIC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASIC - Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
$23.80
-4.07 (-14.60%)
▼
5d:
-11.43%
30d:
-10.26%
90d:
+0.76%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ASIC is down 11.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ASIC is down 11.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.98
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASIC is currently trading at $23.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.69 to $27.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.04, while resistance sits at $27.99. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 14.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ASIC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.30 (+23.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.04, while resistance sits at $27.99. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 14.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ASIC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.30 (+23.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.69 -
$27.73
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-14.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.1% below Wall St target ($29.30)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.69 -
$27.73
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.04
Resistance Level
$27.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.48
Wall Street Target
$29.30
(+23.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.8%
Profit Margin
20.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.13
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$24.47
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$24.81
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.82
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.6%)
$71.19
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 12.6%)
$33.97
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 12.6%)
$28.88
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.17
Bull Case
$35.47
(+49%)
Analyst growth 15.7%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$32.25
(+36%)
Market implied 15.7%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$18.95
(-20%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASIC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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