Ategrity Specialty Insurance (ASIC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASIC - Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
$27.47
0.32 (1.18%)
▲
5d:
+0.4%
30d:
+12.21%
90d:
+30.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASIC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASIC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.44
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASIC is currently trading at $27.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.69 to $26.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.9) compared to its historical average (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASIC scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASIC scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$24.69 -
$26.90
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($29.10)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.5% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.69 -
$26.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.77
Resistance Level
$27.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.90
Wall Street Target
$29.10
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.8%
Profit Margin
20.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 8.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.53
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$31.75
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$34.13
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$27.54
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.9%)
$71.21
(+159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 11.9%)
$38.50
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 11.9%)
$31.07
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.16
Bull Case
$34.83
(+27%)
Analyst growth 16.6%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$31.66
(+15%)
Market implied 16.6%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$18.46
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASIC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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