Ategrity Specialty Insurance (ASIC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASIC - Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
$26.17
-0.58 (-2.17%)
▼
5d:
-3.61%
30d:
-2.02%
90d:
+4.76%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASIC trades at premium valuation expecting 5.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: ASIC trades at premium valuation expecting 5.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.18
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASIC is currently trading at $26.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.25 to $27.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.10 (+11.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.10 (+11.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$26.25 -
$27.65
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($29.10)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.0% growth which is achievable
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.25 -
$27.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.55
Resistance Level
$27.63
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.39
Wall Street Target
$29.10
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.8%
Profit Margin
20.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 9.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.48
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$28.85
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$30.30
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.25
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 11.9%)
$72.03
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 11.9%)
$36.68
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 11.9%)
$31.18
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.16
Bull Case
$34.32
(+31%)
Analyst growth 16.6%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$31.20
(+19%)
Market implied 16.6%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$18.19
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASIC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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