Is AUPH stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AUPH is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AUPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of AUPH stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AUPH to be between $15.58 and $16.63. The current price is $16.96.

What is the analyst price target for AUPH?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AUPH is $17.86. This implies a potential upside of 5.3% from current levels.

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc

PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

$16.96

0.83 (5.15%) ▲

5d: +4.37%

30d: +10.92%

90d: +4.56%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your AUPH Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 15, 2026 at $16.13 · last confirmed Sep 16, 2026

Strength: 7.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AUPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 13.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$25.45

Based on 8.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$15.80

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AUPH is currently trading at $16.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.58 to $16.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $15.58 - $16.63

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 61.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.1%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.86)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $15.58 - $16.63

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$0.98 (5.8%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $15.85

Resistance Level $16.97

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 16, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.90

Wall Street Target $17.86 (+5.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 18.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 75.5%

Profit Margin 100.8%

PE vs Historical 15.9 vs 15.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): 0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $16.96 (0%)

2-Year Target $16.96 (0%)

3-Year Target $16.96 (0%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→16) $16.96 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.0%) $31.07 (+83%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 13.0%) $24.47 (+44%)

Bear: (PE: 13.5, Growth: 13.0%) $20.80 (+23%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 7.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.28

Bull Case $8.87 (-48%)

Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 7.8

Base Case $8.07 (-52%)

Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 7.1

Bear Case $10.97 (-35%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 17, 2026 12:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced AUPH Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AUPH price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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