AVAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAL - GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A.
$5.63
0.16 (2.93%)
▲
5d:
+9.11%
30d:
+34.37%
90d:
+38.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AVAL is 7.4% above its trading range ($5.24). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AVAL is 7.4% above its trading range ($5.24). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.79
2.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAL is currently trading at $5.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.28 to $5.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVAL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $4.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVAL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $4.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.28 -
$5.24
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 26.9% above Wall St target ($4.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.6% growth with 19.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.28 -
$5.24
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.72
Resistance Level
$5.75
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.83
Wall Street Target
$4.00
(-26.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.9%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.72
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$5.98
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$6.26
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.48
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 32.6%)
$28.26
(+417%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 32.6%)
$12.75
(+133%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 32.6%)
$10.84
(+98%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$8.37
(+53%)
Analyst growth 39.1%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$7.61
(+39%)
Market implied 39.1%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$3.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 17, 2026 12:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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