AVAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAL - GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A.
$4.90
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
+0.62%
30d:
-7.2%
90d:
-0.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVAL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVAL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.55
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.93
17.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAL is currently trading at $4.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.83 to $5.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $5.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVAL scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $5.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVAL scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$4.83 -
$5.24
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.10)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 76/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.83 -
$5.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.75
Resistance Level
$5.04
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.71
Wall Street Target
$5.10
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.71
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$4.53
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$4.36
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$4.86
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.9%)
$21.77
(+344%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 19.9%)
$8.45
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 19.9%)
$7.18
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.38
Bull Case
$9.03
(+84%)
Analyst growth 67.2%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$8.21
(+68%)
Market implied 67.2%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$3.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$5.46
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 15, 2026 3:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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