UMB Financial (UMBF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$135.86
-0.79 (-0.58%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.17%
30d:
+3.5%
90d:
-9.09%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (63%)
Quality Score
42/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$130.25 â $135.91
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.6x
FAIR
vs 9.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$161.06
+18.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$129.89 / $142.32
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UMBF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$169.83
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMBF is currently trading at $135.86, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $130.25 to $135.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $129.89, while resistance sits at $142.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $161.06 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $129.89, while resistance sits at $142.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $161.06 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$130.25 -
$135.91
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$130.25 -
$135.91
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$129.89
Resistance Level
$142.32
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($161.06)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.61
Wall Street Target
$161.06
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.8%
Profit Margin
35.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$135.18
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$134.50
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$133.83
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â10)
$136.51
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.3%)
$318.81
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 4.3%)
$154.23
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 4.3%)
$131.09
(-4%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.22
Bull Case
$160.79
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$146.17
(+8%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$92.92
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$138.58
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (UMBF)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 28, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
UMBF reported Q3 earnings with a revenue surprise of 4.15% and an EPS surprise of 10.56%. Key metrics such as net interest margin, efficiency ratio, and total risk-based capital ratio came in above estimates.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings report
key metrics
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 7:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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