UMBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMBF - UMB Financial Corp
$139.16
2.22 (1.62%)
▲
5d:
+3.67%
30d:
+6.27%
90d:
+25.25%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UMBF is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UMBF is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$169.41
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMBF is currently trading at $139.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $127.87 to $134.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $134.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMBF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $134.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMBF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$127.87 -
$134.65
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($147.08)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$127.87 -
$134.65
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$125.99
Resistance Level
$134.86
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.00
Wall Street Target
$147.08
(+7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
176.9%
Profit Margin
32.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$138.99
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$141.08
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$143.20
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$137.51
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.4%)
$359.06
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 6.4%)
$164.81
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 6.4%)
$140.09
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.43
Bull Case
$175.41
(+28%)
Analyst growth 19.8%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$159.46
(+16%)
Market implied 19.8%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$90.48
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Charles Gallagher
SELL
388 shares
2026-02-03
Greg M Graves
BUY
220 shares
2026-02-02
J Mariner Kemper
SELL
3500 shares
2026-02-02
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