UMB Financial (UMBF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMBF - UMB Financial Corp
$129.79
-0.22 (-0.17%)
▼
5d:
-3.85%
30d:
-5.92%
90d:
-9.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UMBF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UMBF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.65
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMBF is currently trading at $129.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $133.56 to $142.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $126.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UMBF scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $167.81 (+29.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $126.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UMBF scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $167.81 (+29.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$133.56 -
$142.83
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.3% below Wall St target ($167.81)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$133.56 -
$142.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.52
Resistance Level
$137.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.30
Wall Street Target
$167.81
(+29.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Profit Margin
33.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.58
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$125.41
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$123.28
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$129.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 5.3%)
$332.04
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 5.3%)
$151.38
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 5.3%)
$128.67
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.04
Bull Case
$165.76
(+28%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$150.69
(+16%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$88.41
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$136.76
(+5.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 5:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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