UMB Financial (UMBF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMBF - UMB Financial Corp
$139.49
0.12 (0.09%)
▲
5d:
-2.75%
30d:
-6.66%
90d:
+5.27%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UMBF is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UMBF is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.98
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMBF is currently trading at $139.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $141.47 to $148.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $137.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.07 (+21.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $137.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.07 (+21.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$141.47 -
$148.69
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($170.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (54/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$141.47 -
$148.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$137.56
Resistance Level
$145.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.00
Wall Street Target
$170.07
(+21.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Profit Margin
33.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$140.47
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$141.45
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$142.44
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$139.59
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.4%)
$329.32
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 5.4%)
$163.28
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 5.4%)
$138.79
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.86
Bull Case
$180.31
(+29%)
Analyst growth 17.6%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$163.91
(+18%)
Market implied 17.6%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$94.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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