UMBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMBF - UMB Financial Corp
$145.73
0.22 (0.15%)
▲
5d:
+3.21%
30d:
+0.05%
90d:
+15.5%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UMBF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UMBF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$169.03
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMBF is currently trading at $145.73, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $141.75 to $146.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $149.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $164.38 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $149.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $164.38 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$141.75 -
$146.02
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($164.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$141.75 -
$146.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$137.23
Resistance Level
$149.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.50
Wall Street Target
$164.38
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.9%
Profit Margin
33.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.66
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$153.71
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$157.86
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$145.88
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 5.3%)
$336.32
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 5.3%)
$170.29
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 5.3%)
$144.75
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.80
Bull Case
$188.33
(+29%)
Analyst growth 17.7%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$171.21
(+18%)
Market implied 17.7%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$98.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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