UMB Financial (UMBF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMBF - UMB Financial Corp
$132.91
-0.18 (-0.14%)
▼
5d:
+3.14%
30d:
-0.97%
90d:
-4.46%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UMBF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UMBF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$170.17
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMBF is currently trading at $132.91, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $129.70 to $135.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $134.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMBF scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.12 (+22.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $134.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMBF scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.12 (+22.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$129.70 -
$135.07
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.7% below Wall St target ($163.12)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 68/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$129.70 -
$135.07
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$127.20
Resistance Level
$134.84
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.54
Wall Street Target
$163.13
(+22.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Profit Margin
33.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$131.85
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$130.79
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$129.75
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$133.31
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.0%)
$320.61
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 5.0%)
$153.98
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 5.0%)
$130.88
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.02
Bull Case
$169.72
(+28%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$154.29
(+16%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$90.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$136.56
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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