American States Water (AWR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWR - American States Water Company
$82.85
0.59 (0.72%)
▲
5d:
+1.33%
30d:
-4.2%
90d:
-2.54%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.37
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWR is currently trading at $82.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.76 to $86.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.8) is in line with its historical norms (21.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $80.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AWR scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $80.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AWR scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$81.76 -
$86.83
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($84.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 12% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$81.76 -
$86.83
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.59
Resistance Level
$83.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.80
Wall Street Target
$84.00
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
21.8 vs 21.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.60
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$84.35
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$85.11
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.3%)
$91.22
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.3%)
$83.09
(+0%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 3.3%)
$70.63
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.65
Bull Case
$94.20
(+14%)
Analyst growth 4.1%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$85.64
(+3%)
Market implied 4.1%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$55.94
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 13, 2026 9:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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