AWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWR - American States Water Company
$88.73
0.78 (0.89%)
▲
5d:
+3.57%
30d:
+4.84%
90d:
+14.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AWR is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.81
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWR is currently trading at $88.73, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.47 to $87.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.4) compared to its historical average (20.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$84.47 -
$87.83
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
44.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($84.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.47 -
$87.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.20
Resistance Level
$89.01
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.38
Wall Street Target
$84.00
(-5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
23.4 vs 20.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$92.10
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$95.60
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$99.23
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$88.71
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.4, Growth: 3.7%)
$98.92
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 3.7%)
$85.59
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 3.7%)
$72.75
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.68
Bull Case
$99.77
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.1%, PE expands to 26.3
Base Case
$90.70
(+2%)
Market implied 3.1%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case
$59.81
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 14, 2026 8:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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