BCRX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

BCRX - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)
$9.96
0.21 (2.21%) ▲
5d: +1.17%
30d: +7.16%
90d: +10.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 13, 2026 at $9.87 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 6.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
â„šī¸ NEUTRAL: BCRX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -12.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.19
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.50
43.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: BCRX is currently trading at $9.96, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.10 to $10.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1400% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, BCRX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.76, while resistance sits at $10.68.

Market Sentiment: BCRX scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.82 (+113.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $9.10 - $10.07
Company Quality Score 41/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 42.9%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 113.7% below Wall St target ($20.82)
  • WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $9.10 - $10.07
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $8.76
Resistance Level $10.68
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 17, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.36
Wall Street Target $20.82 (+113.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 33.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 1400.0%
Profit Margin -40.9%
Valuation Discount vs History -12.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical 10.4 vs 15.4 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -12.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $8.77 (-10%)
2-Year Target $7.89 (-19%)
3-Year Target $7.10 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→15) $10.55 (+8%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 26.2%) $38.20 (+292%)
Base: (SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 26.2%) $19.56 (+101%)
Bear: (PE: 8.8, Growth: 26.2%) $16.63 (+71%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 15.4
Stabilization Target: $14.48 (+48.6%)
PE Expansion Potential: +48.6%
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Last updated: August 17, 2026 1:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alane P Barnes SELL 150000 shares 2026-03-16

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