BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$17.44
0.37 (2.17%)
▲
5d:
-6.94%
30d:
-8.21%
90d:
-14.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BILI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BILI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.14
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.65
39.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $17.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.54 to $18.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.9) compared to its historical average (2.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 435.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.89, while resistance sits at $19.47.
Market Sentiment: BILI scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.63 (+69.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.89, while resistance sits at $19.47.
Market Sentiment: BILI scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.63 (+69.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.54 -
$18.73
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 69.9% below Wall St target ($29.63)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.54 -
$18.73
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.89
Resistance Level
$19.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.91
Wall Street Target
$29.63
(+69.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
435.8%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.9 vs 2.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.70
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.13
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.71
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$17.27
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 29.9%)
$404.04
(+2217%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.9, Growth: 29.9%)
$38.22
(+119%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.6, Growth: 29.9%)
$32.49
(+86%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.48
Bull Case
$37.55
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.1
Base Case
$34.14
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.6
Bear Case
$11.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.9 to 2.6
Stabilization Target:
$23.69
(+35.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 15, 2026 4:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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