Bilibili (BILI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$15.18
0.28 (1.88%)
▲
5d:
-3.56%
30d:
-8.88%
90d:
-9.43%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.11
41.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $15.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.26 to $16.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.8) compared to its historical average (2.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 52.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.39, while resistance sits at $16.36.
Market Sentiment: BILI scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.93 (+77.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.39, while resistance sits at $16.36.
Market Sentiment: BILI scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.93 (+77.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.26 -
$16.90
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 77.4% below Wall St target ($26.93)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 18% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.26 -
$16.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.39
Resistance Level
$16.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.76
Wall Street Target
$26.93
(+77.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.9%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.8 vs 2.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.66
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.30
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.07
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$15.74
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 26.7%)
$355.78
(+2244%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.8, Growth: 26.7%)
$30.88
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.5, Growth: 26.7%)
$26.25
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$31.68
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.5
Base Case
$28.80
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.7
Bear Case
$9.79
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.8 to 2.5
Stabilization Target:
$21.59
(+42.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 21, 2026 5:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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