BLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLD - TopBuild Corp. Common Stock
$411.22
-2.25 (-0.54%)
▼
5d:
-0.2%
30d:
+0.01%
90d:
+18.51%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$666.20
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$413.66
0.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLD is currently trading at $411.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $402.67 to $416.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.8) is in line with its historical norms (20.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $390.23, while resistance sits at $427.17.
Market Sentiment: BLD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $471.33 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $390.23, while resistance sits at $427.17.
Market Sentiment: BLD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $471.33 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$402.67 -
$416.89
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($471.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$402.67 -
$416.89
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$390.23
Resistance Level
$427.17
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.83
Wall Street Target
$471.33
(+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.8 vs 20.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$409.34
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$405.24
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$401.19
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$414.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.7%)
$685.96
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 14.7%)
$624.63
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 14.7%)
$530.94
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.79
Bull Case
$544.96
(+32%)
Analyst growth 17.2%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$495.42
(+20%)
Market implied 17.2%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$287.48
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.8 to 20.5
Stabilization Target:
$427.38
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 1:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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