LPX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPX - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.
$72.43
0.52 (0.72%)
▲
5d:
-2.75%
30d:
-7.92%
90d:
+0.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
2d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LPX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LPX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.01
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.31
16.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPX is currently trading at $72.43, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.24 to $78.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.1) is in line with its historical norms (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $69.42, while resistance sits at $77.79.
Market Sentiment: LPX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.31 (+29.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $69.42, while resistance sits at $77.79.
Market Sentiment: LPX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.31 (+29.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$72.24 -
$78.74
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.8% below Wall St target ($93.31)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with -20.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.24 -
$78.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.42
Resistance Level
$77.79
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.15
Wall Street Target
$93.31
(+29.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-70.3%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 20.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.13
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$72.34
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$72.56
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$72.03
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 101.5%)
$250.67
(+249%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 101.5%)
$242.70
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 101.5%)
$206.29
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (63x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 62.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.17
Bull Case
$161.94
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 69.2
Base Case
$147.22
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 62.9
Bear Case
$50.05
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 53.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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2026-03-10
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BUY
2026-02-27
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2026-02-19
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