LPX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPX - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.
$74.17
-1.57 (-2.07%)
▼
5d:
-3.96%
30d:
+5.75%
90d:
+2.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$145.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.49
18.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPX is currently trading at $74.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.48 to $76.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.7) is in line with its historical norms (19.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $69.39, while resistance sits at $76.94.
Market Sentiment: LPX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.62 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $69.39, while resistance sits at $76.94.
Market Sentiment: LPX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.62 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$70.48 -
$76.04
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.5% below Wall St target ($91.62)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.48 -
$76.04
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.59
(6.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.40
Resistance Level
$76.94
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.72
Wall Street Target
$91.62
(+23.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-70.3%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.7 vs 19.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.95
(0%)
2-Year Target
$73.73
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$73.50
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
$74.17
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 97.4%)
$276.44
(+273%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 97.4%)
$250.32
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 97.4%)
$212.78
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 44.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.69
Bull Case
$91.46
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 47.1
Base Case
$75.74
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 44.8
Bear Case
$57.94
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 40.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 19.9
Stabilization Target:
$74.84
(+0.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lizanne M Bruce
SELL
1300 shares
2026-03-10
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
F Nicholas Grasberger I…
BUY
20000 shares
2026-02-19
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Advanced LPX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LPX price and gamma walls.
