LPX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPX - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.
$73.18
-0.57 (-0.77%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.96%
30d:
+1.44%
90d:
+4.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LPX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LPX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$119.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.00
1.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPX is currently trading at $73.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.12 to $75.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.2) compared to its historical average (20.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $70.12, while resistance sits at $77.91.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.23 (+26.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $70.12, while resistance sits at $77.91.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.23 (+26.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$72.12 -
$75.99
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.0% below Wall St target ($92.23)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.2% growth with -12.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.12 -
$75.99
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.12
Resistance Level
$77.91
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.16
Wall Street Target
$92.23
(+26.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.8%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.2% premium
PE vs Historical
24.2 vs 20.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.72
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$82.54
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$87.65
(+20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24â20)
PE COMPRESSION
$73.30
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.2, Growth: 180.1%)
$246.98
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 180.1%)
$205.21
(+180%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 180.1%)
$174.43
(+138%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (93x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 92.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.82
Bull Case
$167.18
(+128%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 101.9
Base Case
$151.98
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 92.7
Bear Case
$51.67
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 78.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 11:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lizanne M Bruce
SELL
1300 shares
2026-03-10
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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