EXP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXP - Eagle Materials, Inc.
$214.74
9.80 (4.78%)
▲
5d:
-0.9%
30d:
-2.46%
90d:
+1.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EXP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$219.19
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$136.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXP is currently trading at $214.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $205.18 to $225.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.9) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $197.79, while resistance sits at $225.21. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: EXP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $197.79, while resistance sits at $225.21. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: EXP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$205.18 -
$225.06
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($226.78)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with 2.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$205.18 -
$225.06
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$197.79
Resistance Level
$225.21
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.94
Wall Street Target
$226.78
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$218.18
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$221.67
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$225.21
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$214.08
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -1.1%)
$254.57
(+19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: -1.1%)
$207.99
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: -1.1%)
$176.80
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.69
Bull Case
$225.23
(+5%)
Analyst growth -0.1%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$204.76
(-5%)
Market implied -0.1%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$139.36
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 8:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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