CAKE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CAKE - Cheesecake Factory (The)
$80.44
-1.51 (-1.84%)
▼
5d:
+3.47%
30d:
+7.28%
90d:
+36.57%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
12d
Get Alerted When CAKE Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CAKE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CAKE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$89.87
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$55.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAKE is currently trading at $80.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.93 to $80.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (14.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAKE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $75.59, while resistance sits at $84.54.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $68.40. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAKE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $75.59, while resistance sits at $84.54.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $68.40. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$70.93 -
$80.57
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CAKE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 15.0% above Wall St target ($68.40)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.1% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.93 -
$80.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.59
Resistance Level
$84.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.06
Wall Street Target
$68.40
(-15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.2%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.1% premium
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 14.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.96
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$94.00
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$101.61
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$80.46
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.3%)
$130.24
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 10.3%)
$107.99
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 10.3%)
$85.51
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.41
Bull Case
$118.91
(+48%)
Analyst growth 30.6%, PE expands to 26.7
Base Case
$108.10
(+34%)
Market implied 30.6%, PE stable at 24.3
Bear Case
$56.28
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:38 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CAKE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scarlett May
SELL
5206 shares
2026-03-10
Ashley W Hanscom
SELL
2951 shares
2026-02-25
Matthew Eliot Clark
SELL
7000 shares
2026-02-25
Featured in Portfolios
CAKE is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
Top Rated Restaurants Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Restaurants by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WING
Wingstop Inc |
STRONG BUY
30 analysts |
$233 | 55 HOLD |
|
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill I… |
STRONG BUY
37 analysts |
$43 | 67 BUY |
|
QSR
Restaurant Brands Intern… |
BUY
31 analysts |
$85 | 61 BUY |
|
DPZ
Domino's Pizza Inc Commo… |
BUY
31 analysts |
$394 | 61 BUY |
|
YUMC
Yum China Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
23 analysts |
$61 | 64 BUY |
Advanced CAKE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CAKE price and gamma walls.
