Cheesecake Factory (The) (CAKE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$108.80
-2.16 (-1.95%)
▼
5d:
-1.29%
30d:
-0.18%
90d:
-7.24%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
0d
Protect CAKE Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (79%)
Quality Score
57/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$107.90 – $114.25
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
20.8x
STRETCHED
vs 16.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$106.27
-2.3% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$97.55 / $117.96
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: CAKE trades at premium valuation expecting 7.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$126.93
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAKE is currently trading at $108.80, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.90 to $114.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.8) compared to its historical average (16.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAKE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $97.55, while resistance sits at $117.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAKE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $97.55, while resistance sits at $117.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$107.90 -
$114.25
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$107.90 -
$114.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.92
(5.4%)
Support Level
$97.55
Resistance Level
$117.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding CAKE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($106.27)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.4% growth which is achievable
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.79
Wall Street Target
$106.27
(-2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
80.3%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.4% premium
PE vs Historical
20.8 vs 16.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$116.85
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$125.50
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$134.79
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$108.93
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 11.3%)
$149.89
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.3%)
$143.21
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 11.3%)
$121.14
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.22
Bull Case
$151.38
(+39%)
Analyst growth 24.0%, PE expands to 28.9
Base Case
$137.62
(+27%)
Market implied 24.0%, PE stable at 26.3
Bear Case
$75.45
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CAKE)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish sentiment on StockTwits as users encourage $CAKE's marketing team to leverage free publicity. No recent news articles available.
Key Retail Themes:
Marketing Opportunity
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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