Cheesecake Factory (The) (CAKE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CAKE - Cheesecake Factory (The)
$107.95
2.71 (2.58%)
▲
5d:
+2.76%
30d:
-0.38%
90d:
+36.33%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CAKE trades at premium valuation expecting 10.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: CAKE trades at premium valuation expecting 10.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.50
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAKE is currently trading at $107.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.26 to $111.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.6) compared to its historical average (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAKE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CAKE scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $95.93. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAKE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CAKE scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $95.93. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$100.26 -
$111.23
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CAKE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.1% above Wall St target ($95.93)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 10.3% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$100.26 -
$111.23
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.54
Resistance Level
$108.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.60
Wall Street Target
$95.93
(-11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.7%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.3% premium
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 16.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$119.07
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$131.33
(+22%)
3-Year Target
$144.86
(+34%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$107.95
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.6, Growth: 10.3%)
$145.00
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.3%)
$136.92
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 10.3%)
$108.06
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.69
Bull Case
$156.76
(+45%)
Analyst growth 35.4%, PE expands to 31.4
Base Case
$142.51
(+32%)
Market implied 35.4%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$71.56
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CAKE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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