Cheesecake Factory (The) (CAKE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CAKE - Cheesecake Factory (The)
$114.39
-2.04 (-1.75%)
▼
5d:
+1.36%
30d:
+11.02%
90d:
+35.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CAKE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CAKE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$119.20
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAKE is currently trading at $114.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.99 to $112.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.6) compared to its historical average (16.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAKE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.55, while resistance sits at $118.63.
Market Sentiment: CAKE scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $99.20. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAKE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.55, while resistance sits at $118.63.
Market Sentiment: CAKE scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $99.20. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$100.99 -
$112.97
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
18.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CAKE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.3% above Wall St target ($99.20)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 11.0% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$100.99 -
$112.97
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.55
Resistance Level
$118.63
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.55
Wall Street Target
$99.20
(-13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.7%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.0% premium
PE vs Historical
22.6 vs 16.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.97
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$140.94
(+23%)
3-Year Target
$156.44
(+37%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$114.49
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.5, Growth: 10.7%)
$155.24
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.7%)
$136.74
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 10.7%)
$113.61
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.69
Bull Case
$176.09
(+54%)
Analyst growth 37.5%, PE expands to 34.7
Base Case
$160.08
(+40%)
Market implied 37.5%, PE stable at 31.6
Bear Case
$79.17
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CAKE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CAKE price and gamma walls.
