What is the fair value of CAKE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CAKE to be between $105.02 and $112.89. The current price is $102.70.

What is the analyst price target for CAKE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CAKE is $94.80. This implies a potential upside of -7.7% from current levels.

Cheesecake Factory (The) (CAKE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CAKE - Cheesecake Factory (The)

RETAIL-EATING PLACES

$102.70

1.54 (1.52%) ▲

5d: -4.18%

30d: -12.44%

90d: +36.97%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your CAKE Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 27, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $107.58 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 6.5/10

Get Alerted When CAKE Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.

100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading historical data...

💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CAKE trades at premium valuation expecting 9.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$111.35

Based on 7.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$69.14

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CAKE is currently trading at $102.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $105.02 to $112.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.7) compared to its historical average (15.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CAKE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $99.54, while resistance sits at $113.80.

Market Sentiment: CAKE scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $105.02 - $112.89

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 49.0%

Protect Your Profits

Holding CAKE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($94.80)
NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 9.3% growth which is achievable

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $105.02 - $112.89

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $99.54

Resistance Level $113.80

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 20.66

Wall Street Target $94.80 (-7.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 7.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 23.7%

Profit Margin 4.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +9.3% premium

PE vs Historical 20.7 vs 15.8 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +9.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $112.25 (+9%)

2-Year Target $122.69 (+20%)

3-Year Target $134.10 (+31%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→16) PE COMPRESSION $102.58 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.5%) $138.60 (+35%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.5%) $135.34 (+32%)

Bear: (PE: 15.8, Growth: 10.5%) $106.02 (+3%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 28.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.60

Bull Case $153.69 (+50%)

Analyst growth 38.1%, PE expands to 30.9

Base Case $139.72 (+36%)

Market implied 38.1%, PE stable at 28.1

Bear Case $68.79 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit

bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.

Last updated: September 11, 2026 10:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:03 PM

🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now

Ticker	Score	Recommendation	Change %

See Full Scanner Results »

Technical Signals Check

Is CAKE showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

NEUTRAL

View Insider Activity Scanner

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for CAKE.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Featured in Portfolios

CAKE is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.

Clean Energy Future Thematic • +13.4% Return

Dividend Aristocrats Income • +11.0% Return

Reddit Favorites Fun • +20.5% Return

View All Strategies

Top Rated Restaurants Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Restaurants by analyst ratings.

Stock	Analyst Consensus	Analyst Target	Tradestie Score
WING Wingstop Inc	STRONG BUY 30 analysts	$203	51 HOLD
YUMC Yum China Holdings Inc	STRONG BUY 23 analysts	$62	54 HOLD
DRI Darden Restaurants Inc	BUY 31 analysts	$231	56 HOLD
BROS Dutch Bros Inc	STRONG BUY 24 analysts	$78	43 HOLD
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill I…	STRONG BUY 37 analysts	$44	37 SELL

WING Wingstop Inc

51 HOLD

YUMC Yum China Holding…

54 HOLD

DRI Darden Restaurant…

56 HOLD

BROS Dutch Bros Inc

43 HOLD

CMG Chipotle Mexican …

37 SELL

Advanced CAKE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CAKE price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for CAKE

CAKE Technical Chart CAKE Price Prediction CAKE Earnings Date CAKE Investment Advisor CAKE Fair Price Analyzer CAKE Options Advisor CAKE Options Chain CAKE Options Analysis CAKE Competitors

Compare CAKE with Peers

CAKE vs EAT
Which one to buy?

CAKE vs DRI
Which one to buy?

CAKE vs TXRH
Which one to buy?

CAKE vs PZZA
Which one to buy?

CAKE vs CBRL
Which one to buy?

CAKE vs BROS

CAKE vs QSR
Winner: QSR

ABTC vs CAKE
Winner: CAKE

WING vs CAKE
Winner: CAKE

CAKE vs WEN
Winner: Tie

ACCL vs CAKE

Create New Comparison View All Competitors

Tradestie