Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CBSH - Commerce Bancshares Inc
$54.39
-0.22 (-0.40%)
▼
5d:
-1.61%
30d:
-6.69%
90d:
-7.01%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CBSH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CBSH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.95
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $54.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.98 to $58.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CBSH scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.56 (+20.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CBSH scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.56 (+20.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$54.98 -
$58.02
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($65.56)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 13% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.98 -
$58.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.49
Resistance Level
$56.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.80
Wall Street Target
$65.56
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.63
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$52.88
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$52.14
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$54.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.5%)
$113.60
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 7.5%)
$67.50
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 7.5%)
$57.37
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.08
Bull Case
$67.86
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.0%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$61.69
(+13%)
Market implied 13.0%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$37.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 12.3
Stabilization Target:
$56.69
(+4.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 11, 2026 3:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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