CBSH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CBSH - Commerce Bancshares Inc
$59.57
0.55 (0.93%)
â˛
5d:
-0.15%
30d:
+2.87%
90d:
+16.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CBSH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CBSH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.46
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $59.57, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.34 to $59.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$58.34 -
$59.61
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($64.56)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.34 -
$59.61
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.35
Resistance Level
$60.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.89
Wall Street Target
$64.56
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.02
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$61.04
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$62.08
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â12)
PE COMPRESSION
$58.75
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.7%)
$112.53
(+91%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 6.7%)
$71.71
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 6.7%)
$60.96
(+3%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.05
Bull Case
$72.92
(+24%)
Analyst growth 13.0%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$66.29
(+12%)
Market implied 13.0%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$39.88
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 12, 2026 2:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy S Dunn
BUY
2500 shares
2026-03-13
Kim L Jakovich
SELL
949 shares
2026-03-05
Margaret M Rowe
SELL
861 shares
2026-03-05
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