CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$36.63
1.38 (3.91%)
▲
5d:
+7.8%
30d:
+20.41%
90d:
+7.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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3 traders called CMG this week
75% bullish • 1 bearish
75% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.52
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $36.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.41 to $34.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.1) is in line with its historical norms (26.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+17.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+17.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$30.41 -
$34.57
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.0% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with 7.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.41 -
$34.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.45
Resistance Level
$33.59
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.05
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+17.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.9%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
27.1 vs 26.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.85
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$37.07
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$37.29
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$36.68
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 19.4%)
$62.34
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.4%)
$50.20
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 19.4%)
$42.67
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$48.18
(+32%)
Analyst growth 24.2%, PE expands to 35.6
Base Case
$43.80
(+20%)
Market implied 24.2%, PE stable at 32.3
Bear Case
$23.97
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-29
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