CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$31.14
0.60 (1.96%)
▲
5d:
-4.86%
30d:
-5.06%
90d:
-6.65%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.87
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.56
14.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $31.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.92 to $32.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.5) compared to its historical average (26.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $28.71, while resistance sits at $33.45.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.88 (+40.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $28.71, while resistance sits at $33.45.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.88 (+40.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$29.92 -
$32.99
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.4% below Wall St target ($42.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.92 -
$32.99
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.71
Resistance Level
$33.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.51
Wall Street Target
$42.88
(+40.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.9%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.5 vs 26.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.83
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$27.22
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$25.69
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→27)
$30.58
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.5, Growth: 19.6%)
$52.27
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.6%)
$50.57
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 19.6%)
$42.98
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$44.48
(+46%)
Analyst growth 24.4%, PE expands to 32.8
Base Case
$40.43
(+32%)
Market implied 24.4%, PE stable at 29.8
Bear Case
$22.09
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.5 to 26.8
Stabilization Target:
$36.35
(+19.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 1:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-29
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