What is the fair value of DPZ stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for DPZ to be between $294.27 and $310.03. The current price is $311.15.

What is the analyst price target for DPZ?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for DPZ is $356.48. This implies a potential upside of 14.6% from current levels.

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

DPZ - Domino's Pizza Inc.

WHOLESALE-GROCERIES & RELATED PRODUCTS

$311.15

-5.16 (-1.63%) ▼

5d: +5.16%

30d: +4.72%

90d: -3.74%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 13, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 12, 2026 at $310.90 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 5.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: DPZ is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

DPZ is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; DPZ has been on it 3 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-21.

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 8.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$476.99

Based on 6.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$296.17

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: DPZ is currently trading at $311.15, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $294.27 to $310.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.0) compared to its historical average (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, DPZ is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $317.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $356.48 (+14.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $294.27 - $310.03

Company Quality Score 51/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 62.9%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($356.48)
WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $294.27 - $310.03

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $283.00

Resistance Level $317.05

Current Trend Sideways

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.03

Wall Street Target $356.48 (+14.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 12.7%

Profit Margin 12.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 15.0 vs 17.1 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $297.77 (-4%)

2-Year Target $284.97 (-8%)

3-Year Target $272.71 (-12%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→17) $310.36 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.3%) $522.37 (+68%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 8.3%) $395.21 (+27%)

Bear: (PE: 12.8, Growth: 8.3%) $335.93 (+8%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 17.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.15

Bull Case $396.98 (+28%)

Analyst growth 14.1%, PE expands to 19.2

Base Case $360.89 (+16%)

Market implied 14.1%, PE stable at 17.4

Bear Case $215.09 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 17.1

Stabilization Target: $354.11 (+13.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +13.8%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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