DLTR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DLTR - Dollar Tree Inc.
$113.41
-0.52 (-0.46%)
▼
5d:
+0.47%
30d:
+18.49%
90d:
+4.75%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DLTR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DLTR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$191.90
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.16
4.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DLTR is currently trading at $113.41, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.06 to $114.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (17.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.90, while resistance sits at $116.88.
Market Sentiment: DLTR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.00 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.90, while resistance sits at $116.88.
Market Sentiment: DLTR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.00 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$97.06 -
$114.79
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($125.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$97.06 -
$114.79
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.90
Resistance Level
$116.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.82
Wall Street Target
$125.00
(+10.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 17.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$112.62
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$111.83
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$111.05
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$113.55
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.4%)
$237.43
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 17.4%)
$183.37
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 17.4%)
$155.86
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.23
Bull Case
$135.63
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.2%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$123.30
(+9%)
Market implied 8.2%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$77.47
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 17.2
Stabilization Target:
$115.97
(+2.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 8:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DLTR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-28
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-01-13
Robert Aflatooni
SELL
175 shares
2026-01-07
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