Is COST stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, COST is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: COST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of COST stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for COST to be between $953.75 and $1038.36. The current price is $964.59.

What is the analyst price target for COST?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for COST is $1082.94. This implies a potential upside of 13.8% from current levels.

COST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

COST - Costco Wholesale Corp

RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

$964.59

13.24 (1.39%) ▲

5d: -1.52%

30d: -8.17%

90d: -0.12%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your COST Gains

Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 28, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

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Strength: 6.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: COST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$797.85

Based on 7.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$495.40

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $964.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $953.75 to $1038.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.0) is in line with its historical norms (44.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $961.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: COST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1082.94 (+13.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $953.75 - $1038.36

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 54.8%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1082.94)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $953.75 - $1038.36

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $961.00

Resistance Level $997.41

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Jun 17, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 41.96

Wall Street Target $1082.94 (+13.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 21.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 45.5%

Profit Margin 3.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 42.0 vs 44.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $936.13 (-2%)

2-Year Target $921.15 (-3%)

3-Year Target $906.41 (-5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 42→44) $950.45 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 42.0, Growth: 10.2%) $1272.76 (+34%)

Base: (SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.2%) $660.62 (-31%)

Bear: (PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.2%) $561.53 (-41%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 47.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.89

Bull Case $1192.98 (+25%)

Analyst growth 14.0%, PE expands to 52.6

Base Case $1084.53 (+14%)

Market implied 14.0%, PE stable at 47.8

Bear Case $646.99 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 42.0 to 44.0

Stabilization Target: $997.57 (+4.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +4.9%

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Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:12 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Claudine Adamo SELL 730 shares 2026-03-09

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-02-24

Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. BUY 2026-01-30

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