Is COST stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, COST is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of COST stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for COST to be between $900.36 and $968.67. The current price is $998.31.

What is the analyst price target for COST?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for COST is $1066.06. This implies a potential upside of 6.8% from current levels.

Costco Wholesale (COST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

COST - Costco Wholesale Corp

RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

$998.31

3.70 (0.37%) ▲

5d: +1.66%

30d: +11.0%

90d: +7.8%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your COST Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Dec 10, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 9, 2026 at $943.72 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 8.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$797.63

Based on 7.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$495.26

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $998.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $900.36 to $968.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 44.0) is in line with its historical norms (43.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1008.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: COST scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $900.36 - $968.67

Company Quality Score 36/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 24.8%

Protect Your Profits

COST is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1066.06)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $900.36 - $968.67

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $939.60

Resistance Level $1008.37

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 44.05

Wall Street Target $1066.06 (+6.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 15.0%

Profit Margin 3.0%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.8% premium

PE vs Historical 44.1 vs 43.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $1006.30 (+1%)

2-Year Target $1014.35 (+2%)

3-Year Target $1022.46 (+2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 44→43) PE COMPRESSION $998.20 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 44.0, Growth: 10.2%) $1337.41 (+34%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.2%) $603.04 (-40%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.2%) $512.59 (-49%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (44x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 47.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.74

Bull Case $1195.65 (+20%)

Analyst growth 9.3%, PE expands to 52.8

Base Case $1086.95 (+9%)

Market implied 9.3%, PE stable at 48.0

Bear Case $676.33 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced COST Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COST price and gamma walls.

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