Costco Wholesale (COST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COST - Costco Wholesale Corp
$904.77
2.39 (0.26%)
▲
5d:
-2.23%
30d:
-4.72%
90d:
-7.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 24, 2026
11d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $947.82 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026
Strength: 9.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$797.86
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$495.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $904.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $922.82 to $960.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 39.9) is in line with its historical norms (43.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $898.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: COST scores 14/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1072.20 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $898.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: COST scores 14/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1072.20 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$922.82 -
$960.26
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (14/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1072.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$922.82 -
$960.26
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$898.43
Resistance Level
$953.73
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.91
Wall Street Target
$1072.20
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.5%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
39.9 vs 43.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$880.34
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$856.57
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$833.44
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 40→43)
$904.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$1209.86
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.2%)
$611.50
(-32%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.2%)
$519.77
(-43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (40x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.85
Bull Case
$1133.74
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.2%, PE expands to 50.0
Base Case
$1030.67
(+14%)
Market implied 14.2%, PE stable at 45.5
Bear Case
$613.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 39.9 to 43.3
Stabilization Target:
$981.70
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 10:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is COST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced COST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COST price and gamma walls.
