COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
RETAIL-VARIETY STORES
Costco Wholesale (COST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$1092.21
+4.60 (+0.42%)
▲
5d:
+2.5%
30d:
+11.22%
90d:
+13.64%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Dec 10, 2026
27d
Protect COST Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
42/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$957.66 – $1048.92
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
48.2x
FAIR
vs 43.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$1073.35
-1.7% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$1006.56 / $1102.84
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 5, 2026 at $1068.48 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 8.0/10
Get Alerted When COST Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$797.63
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$495.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $1092.21, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $957.66 to $1048.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 48.2) compared to its historical average (43.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1102.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COST scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1102.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COST scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$957.66 -
$1048.92
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$957.66 -
$1048.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$1006.56
Resistance Level
$1102.84
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
COST is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1073.35)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
48.19
Wall Street Target
$1073.35
(-1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.0%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
48.2 vs 43.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1132.62
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$1174.53
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$1217.99
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 48→43)
PE COMPRESSION
$1091.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 48.2, Growth: 10.2%)
$1463.21
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$603.04
(-45%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$512.59
(-53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (51x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (48x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 51.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.76
Bull Case
$1280.40
(+18%)
Analyst growth 9.2%, PE expands to 56.5
Base Case
$1164.00
(+7%)
Market implied 9.2%, PE stable at 51.4
Bear Case
$724.98
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 43.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share COST Analysis
Share this live COST analysis (with rich preview card) to Reddit, StockTwits, X, or embed the chart on your blog.
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (COST)
Bullish
5 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
4 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Costco Wholesale shareholders experienced a 28.0% return in 2026, with bulls arguing the membership engine could continue driving growth, while bears focused on valuation risks. The latest article suggests Costco Wholesale's net margin is a critical scoreboard in determining the investment thesis.
Key Retail Themes:
Costco Wholesale's membership engine
Valuation risks
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is COST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Discount Stores Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Discount Stores by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WMT
Walmart Inc. |
STRONG BUY
43 analysts |
$127 | 40 HOLD |
|
DG
Dollar General Corporati… |
HOLD
31 analysts |
$142 | 44 HOLD |
|
TGT
Target Corporation |
HOLD
38 analysts |
$165 | 37 SELL |
|
DLTR
Dollar Tree Inc |
HOLD
29 analysts |
$135 | 32 SELL |
|
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet H… |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$102 | 48 HOLD |
Advanced COST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COST price and gamma walls.
Explore More Analysis & Live Quant Tools
Part A: Deep-Dive COST Research Pages
