Is DLTR stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, DLTR is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DLTR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of DLTR stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for DLTR to be between $122.52 and $129.19. The current price is $129.37.

What is the analyst price target for DLTR?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for DLTR is $127.32. This implies a potential upside of -1.6% from current levels.

DLTR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

DLTR - Dollar Tree Inc.

RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

$129.37

-1.53 (-1.17%) ▼

5d: +0.02%

30d: +3.57%

90d: +37.28%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 02, 2026 21d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 10, 2026 at $130.46 · last confirmed Aug 10, 2026

Strength: 5.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DLTR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 17.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$194.13

Based on 10.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$120.54

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: DLTR is currently trading at $129.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.52 to $129.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.2) compared to its historical average (17.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $125.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: DLTR scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $122.52 - $129.19

Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 24.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($127.32)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $122.52 - $129.19

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $125.88

Resistance Level $132.10

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 10, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 19.19

Wall Street Target $127.32 (-1.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 7.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 9.5%

Profit Margin 6.5%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.3% premium

PE vs Historical 19.2 vs 17.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $133.64 (+3%)

2-Year Target $138.05 (+7%)

3-Year Target $142.60 (+10%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→17) PE COMPRESSION $129.32 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 17.4%) $220.53 (+71%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 17.4%) $209.17 (+62%)

Bear: (PE: 16.3, Growth: 17.4%) $177.80 (+37%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 21.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.23

Bull Case $155.83 (+21%)

Analyst growth 8.2%, PE expands to 23.1

Base Case $141.66 (+10%)

Market implied 8.2%, PE stable at 21.0

Bear Case $89.01 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 10, 2026 8:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced DLTR Option Strategies

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