DLTR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DLTR - Dollar Tree Inc.
$115.09
1.15 (1.01%)
▲
5d:
+1.95%
30d:
+20.24%
90d:
+6.29%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DLTR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DLTR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$191.90
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.16
3.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DLTR is currently trading at $115.08, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.78 to $114.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $116.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: DLTR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $116.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: DLTR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$95.78 -
$114.26
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($125.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$95.78 -
$114.26
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.90
Resistance Level
$116.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.90
Wall Street Target
$125.00
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 17.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$113.36
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$112.79
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$112.23
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$114.24
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.4%)
$237.43
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 17.4%)
$184.21
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 17.4%)
$156.58
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.23
Bull Case
$132.91
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.2%, PE expands to 19.7
Base Case
$120.83
(+6%)
Market implied 8.2%, PE stable at 17.9
Bear Case
$75.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 17.2
Stabilization Target:
$115.97
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 12:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DLTR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-28
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-01-13
Robert Aflatooni
SELL
175 shares
2026-01-07
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