Dollar Tree (DLTR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DLTR - Dollar Tree Inc.
$118.17
-0.49 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
-9.82%
30d:
-8.12%
90d:
+2.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: DLTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: DLTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$196.36
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$121.93
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DLTR is currently trading at $118.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.61 to $133.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.5) is in line with its historical norms (17.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 197.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DLTR scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.40 (+15.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DLTR scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.40 (+15.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$124.61 -
$133.10
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DLTR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($136.40)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$124.61 -
$133.10
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.25
Resistance Level
$134.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.53
Wall Street Target
$136.40
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
197.2%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 17.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$117.93
(0%)
2-Year Target
$117.70
(0%)
3-Year Target
$117.46
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→18)
$117.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 17.4%)
$219.88
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 17.4%)
$191.06
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 17.4%)
$162.40
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.18
Bull Case
$107.58
(-9%)
Analyst growth -17.6%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$97.80
(-17%)
Market implied -17.6%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$80.69
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 17.6
Stabilization Target:
$118.66
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 1:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DLTR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DLTR price and gamma walls.
