Dollar Tree (DLTR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DLTR - Dollar Tree Inc.
$112.16
-2.27 (-1.98%)
▼
5d:
-1.67%
30d:
-14.97%
90d:
-7.66%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: DLTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: DLTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$196.36
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$121.93
8.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DLTR is currently trading at $112.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.48 to $128.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.6) is in line with its historical norms (17.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 197.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DLTR scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.80 (+22.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DLTR scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.80 (+22.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$112.48 -
$128.86
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DLTR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.0% below Wall St target ($136.80)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 29% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$112.48 -
$128.86
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.12
Resistance Level
$117.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.64
Wall Street Target
$136.80
(+22.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
197.2%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 17.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.14
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$108.16
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$106.21
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$112.37
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 17.4%)
$222.38
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 17.4%)
$181.35
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 17.4%)
$154.14
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.16
Bull Case
$104.00
(-7%)
Analyst growth -17.4%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$94.55
(-16%)
Market implied -17.4%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$77.81
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.6 to 17.6
Stabilization Target:
$118.66
(+5.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DLTR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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