DLTR
Dollar Tree Inc.
RETAIL-VARIETY STORES
Dollar Tree (DLTR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$141.27
-1.63 (-1.14%)
▼
5d:
+2.41%
30d:
+16.02%
90d:
+9.18%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 24, 2026
10d
Protect DLTR Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (24%)
Quality Score
32/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$118.85 – $136.99
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.0x
STRETCHED
vs 17.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$134.96
-4.5% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$130.85 / $148.54
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DLTR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 5, 2026 at $141.56 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$197.48
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$122.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DLTR is currently trading at $141.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.85 to $136.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.9) compared to its historical average (17.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $130.85, while resistance sits at $148.53.
Market Sentiment: DLTR scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $130.85, while resistance sits at $148.53.
Market Sentiment: DLTR scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$118.85 -
$136.99
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$118.85 -
$136.99
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$130.85
Resistance Level
$148.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding DLTR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($134.96)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.7% growth expectation is conservative given 197% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.95
Wall Street Target
$134.96
(-4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
197.2%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.7% premium
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 17.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.32
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$157.83
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$166.83
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$140.93
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 17.4%)
$228.41
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.4%)
$216.50
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 17.4%)
$184.02
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.21
Bull Case
$129.09
(-9%)
Analyst growth -17.9%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$117.35
(-17%)
Market implied -17.9%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$97.17
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (DLTR)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits messages express bullish sentiments towards $DLTR, with traders criticizing short sellers and expressing optimism about the company.
Key Retail Themes:
Short sellers
Company optimism
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 12:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DLTR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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