Is WMT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, WMT is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of WMT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for WMT to be between $105.72 and $115.99. The current price is $119.89.

What is the analyst price target for WMT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for WMT is $127.47. This implies a potential upside of 6.3% from current levels.

Walmart (WMT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

WMT - Walmart Inc.

RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

$119.89

-1.23 (-1.02%) ▼

5d: +0.91%

30d: +11.43%

90d: +7.29%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your WMT Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 19, 2026 25d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 7, 2026 at $108.55 · last confirmed Oct 20, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$109.75

Based on 8.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$68.14

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: WMT is currently trading at $119.89, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $105.72 to $115.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 40.4) is in line with its historical norms (39.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $122.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: WMT scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $105.72 - $115.99

Company Quality Score 32/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 27.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($127.47)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with 5.9% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $105.72 - $115.99

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $111.31

Resistance Level $122.40

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 23, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 40.43

Wall Street Target $127.48 (+6.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -9.1%

Profit Margin 3.0%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.4% premium

PE vs Historical 40.4 vs 39.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $120.37 (+0%)

2-Year Target $120.85 (+1%)

3-Year Target $121.33 (+1%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 40→40) PE COMPRESSION $119.76 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 40.4, Growth: 12.4%) $170.19 (+42%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.4%) $83.61 (-30%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 12.4%) $71.07 (-41%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (40x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 42.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.84

Bull Case $139.13 (+16%)

Analyst growth 4.4%, PE expands to 46.9

Base Case $126.48 (+6%)

Market implied 4.4%, PE stable at 42.7

Bear Case $82.36 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 23, 2026 9:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced WMT Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's WMT price and gamma walls.

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