WMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMT - Walmart Inc.
$119.42
2.24 (1.91%)
▲
5d:
-1.16%
30d:
-1.58%
90d:
-1.08%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: WMT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: WMT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.75
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMT is currently trading at $119.42, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $115.33 to $126.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 40.3) is in line with its historical norms (41.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.65 (+16.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.65 (+16.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$115.33 -
$126.13
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($138.65)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$115.33 -
$126.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$112.73
Resistance Level
$120.89
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
40.27
Wall Street Target
$138.65
(+16.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
40.3 vs 41.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$118.23
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$117.04
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$115.87
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 40→42)
$119.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 40.3, Growth: 12.4%)
$169.53
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.4%)
$91.70
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 12.4%)
$77.94
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (40x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.84
Bull Case
$134.60
(+13%)
Analyst growth 4.4%, PE expands to 45.4
Base Case
$122.37
(+3%)
Market implied 4.4%, PE stable at 41.3
Bear Case
$79.68
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 40.3 to 41.5
Stabilization Target:
$123.08
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
C Douglas Mcmillon
SELL
19416 shares
2026-04-23
Christopher James Nichol…
SELL
2900 shares
2026-04-16
John R Furner
SELL
13125 shares
2026-04-16
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