WMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMT - Walmart Inc.
$112.66
0.81 (0.72%)
▲
5d:
+1.76%
30d:
-1.09%
90d:
-13.62%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
8d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $111.85 · last confirmed Aug 10, 2026
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: WMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: WMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.75
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMT is currently trading at $112.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.45 to $113.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 38.0) is in line with its historical norms (40.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $116.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.97 (+22.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $116.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.97 (+22.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$110.45 -
$113.68
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding WMT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.5% below Wall St target ($137.97)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$110.45 -
$113.68
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$108.56
Resistance Level
$116.03
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.99
Wall Street Target
$137.98
(+22.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
38.0 vs 40.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$109.96
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$107.32
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$104.74
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→41)
$112.77
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 38.0, Growth: 12.4%)
$159.93
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.4%)
$85.17
(-24%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 12.4%)
$72.39
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (38x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.84
Bull Case
$128.48
(+14%)
Analyst growth 4.4%, PE expands to 43.3
Base Case
$116.80
(+4%)
Market implied 4.4%, PE stable at 39.4
Bear Case
$76.06
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 38.0 to 40.9
Stabilization Target:
$121.30
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 10, 2026 8:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
C Douglas Mcmillon
SELL
19416 shares
2026-04-23
Christopher James Nichol…
SELL
2900 shares
2026-04-16
John R Furner
SELL
13125 shares
2026-04-16
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Advanced WMT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's WMT price and gamma walls.
