WMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMT - Walmart Inc.
$103.70
-0.14 (-0.13%)
▼
5d:
-10.04%
30d:
-4.34%
90d:
-14.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $114.80 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: WMT is down 10.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: WMT is down 10.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.75
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMT is currently trading at $103.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.18 to $115.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 35.0) compared to its historical average (40.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $102.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WMT scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.95 (+33.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $102.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WMT scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.95 (+33.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$109.18 -
$115.09
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding WMT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.0% below Wall St target ($137.95)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$109.18 -
$115.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$102.15
Resistance Level
$116.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.97
Wall Street Target
$137.95
(+33.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
35.0 vs 40.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.52
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$93.59
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$88.91
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→41)
$103.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.0, Growth: 12.4%)
$147.21
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 12.4%)
$84.50
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 12.4%)
$71.82
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (35x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.58
Bull Case
$131.30
(+27%)
Analyst growth 14.9%, PE expands to 44.3
Base Case
$119.36
(+15%)
Market implied 14.9%, PE stable at 40.3
Bear Case
$70.61
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.0 to 40.7
Stabilization Target:
$120.70
(+16.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
C Douglas Mcmillon
SELL
19416 shares
2026-04-23
Christopher James Nichol…
SELL
2900 shares
2026-04-16
John R Furner
SELL
13125 shares
2026-04-16
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Advanced WMT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's WMT price and gamma walls.
