WMT Walmart Inc. RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

Walmart (WMT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$126.19
+0.52 (+0.41%) ▲
5d: -1.2% 30d: +8.63% 90d: +9.47%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
40/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$112.72 – $125.69
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
42.6x FAIR
vs 40.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$129.38
+2.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$122.75 / $131.82
Trend: Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $123.51 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026

Strength: 7.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.75
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.14
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: WMT is currently trading at $126.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.72 to $125.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.5) is in line with its historical norms (40.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $122.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: WMT scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $112.72 - $125.69
Company Quality Score 40/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 27.1%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $112.72 - $125.69
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $122.75
Resistance Level $131.82
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 12, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($129.38)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.1% growth with 5.9% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 42.55
Wall Street Target $129.38 (+2.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -9.1%
Profit Margin 3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History +2.1% premium
PE vs Historical 42.6 vs 40.0 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +2.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $128.84 (+2%)
2-Year Target $131.55 (+4%)
3-Year Target $134.31 (+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 43→40) PE COMPRESSION $126.26 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 42.5, Growth: 12.4%) $179.14 (+42%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.4%) $83.61 (-34%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 12.4%) $71.07 (-44%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (43x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.76
Bull Case $148.54 (+18%)
Analyst growth 7.5%, PE expands to 50.1
Base Case $135.04 (+7%)
Market implied 7.5%, PE stable at 45.5
Bear Case $85.46 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (WMT)

Bearish 6 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
5 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Home Depot stock performance and upcoming events that could impact the stock over the next six months, with a focus on the upcoming earnings report and unexpected costs.
Key Retail Themes: performance of Home Depot stock upcoming events and potential impact on the stock
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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