Walmart (WMT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMT - Walmart Inc.
$104.26
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-3.45%
30d:
-1.72%
90d:
-5.77%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 19, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 1, 2026 at $104.26 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.75
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMT is currently trading at $104.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $104.59 to $108.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 35.2) compared to its historical average (40.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.78 (+21.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.78 (+21.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$104.59 -
$108.44
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding WMT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($126.78)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$104.59 -
$108.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.59
Resistance Level
$111.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.16
Wall Street Target
$126.78
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.1%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
35.2 vs 40.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.88
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$95.69
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$91.67
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→40)
$104.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.2, Growth: 12.4%)
$148.01
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.4%)
$85.89
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 12.4%)
$73.00
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (35x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.68
Bull Case
$126.91
(+22%)
Analyst growth 10.7%, PE expands to 42.8
Base Case
$115.37
(+11%)
Market implied 10.7%, PE stable at 38.9
Bear Case
$70.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.2 to 40.0
Stabilization Target:
$118.63
(+13.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 6:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
C Douglas Mcmillon
SELL
19416 shares
2026-04-23
Christopher James Nichol…
SELL
2900 shares
2026-04-16
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SELL
13125 shares
2026-04-16
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Advanced WMT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's WMT price and gamma walls.
