Target (TGT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TGT - Target Corporation
$156.70
0.01 (0.01%)
▲
5d:
+0.35%
30d:
-4.31%
90d:
+20.34%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 18, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TGT trades at premium valuation expecting 8.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TGT trades at premium valuation expecting 8.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$152.44
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$94.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $156.70, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $155.94 to $163.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.5) compared to its historical average (16.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $153.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TGT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $153.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TGT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$155.94 -
$163.73
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TGT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($164.68)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 8.1% growth expectation is conservative given 100% recent growth
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 16% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$155.94 -
$163.73
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$153.96
Resistance Level
$160.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.50
Wall Street Target
$164.68
(+5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.5%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.1% premium
PE vs Historical
20.5 vs 16.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$169.39
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$183.11
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$197.95
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$156.39
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.5, Growth: 4.5%)
$179.06
(+14%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.5%)
$178.15
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 4.5%)
$141.47
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.64
Bull Case
$136.64
(-13%)
Analyst growth -20.7%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$124.22
(-21%)
Market implied -20.7%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$106.55
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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