TGT
Target Corporation
RETAIL-VARIETY STORES
Target (TGT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$161.78
-4.12 (-2.48%)
▼
5d:
+4.78%
30d:
+5.31%
90d:
+5.05%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 18, 2026
6d
Protect TGT Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (24%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$150.81 – $158.95
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.2x
STRETCHED
vs 16.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$164.74
+1.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$145.32 / $167.60
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TGT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 9, 2026 at $165.90 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$157.15
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$97.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $161.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $150.81 to $158.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.2) compared to its historical average (16.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $145.32, while resistance sits at $167.60.
Market Sentiment: TGT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $145.32, while resistance sits at $167.60.
Market Sentiment: TGT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$150.81 -
$158.95
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$150.81 -
$158.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$145.32
Resistance Level
$167.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding TGT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($164.74)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 8.2% growth expectation is conservative given 100% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.17
Wall Street Target
$164.74
(+1.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.5%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.2% premium
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 16.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$175.05
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$189.40
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$204.93
(+27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$161.66
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.2, Growth: 4.5%)
$184.87
(+14%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.5%)
$173.43
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 4.5%)
$145.84
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.09
Bull Case
$138.22
(-15%)
Analyst growth -24.3%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$125.65
(-22%)
Market implied -24.3%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$112.81
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TGT)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 8, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
e.l.f. Beauty's CFO discusses the success of Hailey Bieber's Rhode brand in Europe and opportunities for growth in North America
Key Retail Themes:
Global expansion of Rhode brand
Growth opportunities in North America
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 7:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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