TGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TGT - Target Corporation
$134.68
4.95 (3.82%)
▲
5d:
+1.13%
30d:
+6.76%
90d:
+17.18%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 19, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.33
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $134.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $123.39 to $131.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.0) compared to its historical average (14.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $131.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: TGT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $131.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: TGT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$123.39 -
$131.15
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($132.20)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.9% growth with 6.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$123.39 -
$131.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.77
Resistance Level
$131.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.98
Wall Street Target
$132.20
(+1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.7%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 14.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$136.09
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$142.76
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$149.75
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$129.68
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.5%)
$190.20
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 4.5%)
$148.24
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 4.5%)
$126.01
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.57
Bull Case
$145.18
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.0%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$131.99
(+2%)
Market implied 1.0%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$88.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 1:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew A Liegel
SELL
2053 shares
2026-03-17
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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