TGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TGT - Target Corporation
$134.77
-0.37 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
+6.88%
30d:
+5.31%
90d:
+10.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 19, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.5/10
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1 traders called TGT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.21
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $134.77, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.62 to $136.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.7) compared to its historical average (14.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $131.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $131.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$126.62 -
$136.21
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($133.70)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.8% growth with 6.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$126.62 -
$136.21
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.77
Resistance Level
$131.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.68
Wall Street Target
$133.70
(-1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.7%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.8% premium
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 14.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$142.98
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$151.27
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$160.04
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$134.85
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.5%)
$190.20
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 4.5%)
$154.43
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 4.5%)
$130.12
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.57
Bull Case
$146.88
(+9%)
Analyst growth 1.0%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$133.53
(-1%)
Market implied 1.0%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$89.94
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew A Liegel
SELL
2053 shares
2026-03-17
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TGT price and gamma walls.
