Target (TGT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TGT - Target Corporation
$155.83
0.10 (0.06%)
▲
5d:
-4.99%
30d:
+1.19%
90d:
+17.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 19, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $164.44 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: TGT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 8.6% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: TGT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 8.6% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$149.62
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $155.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.25 to $164.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.4) compared to its historical average (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $154.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TGT scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $154.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TGT scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$151.25 -
$164.00
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TGT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($162.76)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 8.6% growth expectation is conservative given 100% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.25 -
$164.00
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$154.35
Resistance Level
$166.06
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.39
Wall Street Target
$162.76
(+4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.5%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.6% premium
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 15.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$169.23
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$183.79
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$199.59
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$155.63
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.5%)
$178.07
(+14%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.5%)
$176.14
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 4.5%)
$138.85
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.64
Bull Case
$135.80
(-13%)
Analyst growth -20.7%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$123.46
(-21%)
Market implied -20.7%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$105.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 11:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew A Liegel
SELL
2053 shares
2026-03-17
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Advanced TGT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TGT price and gamma walls.
