Target (TGT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TGT - Target Corporation

RETAIL-VARIETY STORES
$152.38
-1.62 (-1.05%) ▼
5d: -1.89%
30d: -4.18%
90d: +13.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 18, 2026 26d
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 19, 2026 at $154.17 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 6.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
TGT is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; TGT has been on it 2 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-21.

See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$155.27
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.41
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $152.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $153.28 to $157.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (16.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $150.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: TGT scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $153.28 - $157.77
Company Quality Score 67/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 85.7%

All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($163.35)
  • NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 6.5% growth expectation is conservative given 100% recent growth
  • BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $153.28 - $157.77
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $150.46
Resistance Level $159.56
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 19.94
Wall Street Target $163.35 (+7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 100.5%
Profit Margin 4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History +6.5% premium
PE vs Historical 19.9 vs 16.5 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +6.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $162.28 (+7%)
2-Year Target $172.83 (+13%)
3-Year Target $184.07 (+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 20→17) PE COMPRESSION $152.32 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.5%) $174.13 (+14%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.5%) $173.43 (+14%)
Bear: (PE: 16.5, Growth: 4.5%) $144.09 (-5%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.63
Bull Case $134.43 (-12%)
Analyst growth -20.6%, PE expands to 17.6
Base Case $122.21 (-20%)
Market implied -20.6%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case $104.72 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced TGT Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TGT price and gamma walls.

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