TGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TGT - Target Corporation
$144.49
-0.02 (-0.01%)
▼
5d:
+5.64%
30d:
+10.9%
90d:
+11.36%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 19, 2026
16d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TGT trades at premium valuation expecting 7.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TGT trades at premium valuation expecting 7.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$143.03
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $144.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $131.24 to $141.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.9) compared to its historical average (15.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $147.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TGT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $147.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TGT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$131.24 -
$141.66
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TGT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($135.02)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.4% growth with 6.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$131.24 -
$141.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$132.55
Resistance Level
$147.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.91
Wall Street Target
$135.02
(-6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.7%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.4% premium
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 15.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$155.18
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$166.67
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$179.00
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$143.90
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.5%)
$181.03
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 4.5%)
$165.11
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 4.5%)
$132.74
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.57
Bull Case
$160.47
(+11%)
Analyst growth 1.0%, PE expands to 21.0
Base Case
$145.89
(+1%)
Market implied 1.0%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$98.27
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew A Liegel
SELL
2053 shares
2026-03-17
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