DG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DG - Dollar General Corp.
$123.44
4.52 (3.80%)
▲
5d:
+6.17%
30d:
+12.26%
90d:
+6.66%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$184.97
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$114.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DG is currently trading at $123.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.50 to $118.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.1) is in line with its historical norms (18.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $115.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: DG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $115.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: DG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$109.50 -
$118.86
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($131.07)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$109.50 -
$118.86
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.87
Resistance Level
$115.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.10
Wall Street Target
$131.07
(+6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.1 vs 18.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$120.97
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$118.55
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$116.18
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$123.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.2%)
$210.51
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.2%)
$165.24
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 10.2%)
$140.46
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.08
Bull Case
$133.40
(+8%)
Analyst growth 2.0%, PE expands to 18.5
Base Case
$121.27
(-2%)
Market implied 2.0%, PE stable at 16.8
Bear Case
$80.87
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.1 to 18.2
Stabilization Target:
$131.41
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 1:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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