DG Dollar General Corp. RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

Dollar General (DG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$137.31
+0.63 (+0.46%) ▲
5d: +5.2% 30d: +8.51% 90d: +14.81%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$124.67 – $136.31
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
19.0x FAIR
vs 17.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$141.52
+3.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$125.15 / $144.61
Trend: Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.93
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.96
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.9x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: DG is currently trading at $137.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.67 to $136.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.0) is in line with its historical norms (17.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, DG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $125.15, while resistance sits at $144.61.

Market Sentiment: DG scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $124.67 - $136.31
Company Quality Score 37/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 24.8%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $124.67 - $136.31
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $125.15
Resistance Level $144.61
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 10, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($141.52)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 19.02
Wall Street Target $141.52 (+3.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 33.3%
Profit Margin 3.9%
Valuation Premium vs History +2.0% premium
PE vs Historical 19.0 vs 17.9 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +2.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $140.06 (+2%)
2-Year Target $142.86 (+4%)
3-Year Target $145.71 (+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→18) PE COMPRESSION $137.15 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.2%) $191.95 (+40%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 10.2%) $183.81 (+34%)
Bear: (PE: 16.2, Growth: 10.2%) $156.24 (+14%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.70
Bull Case $140.98 (+3%)
Analyst growth -6.2%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case $128.16 (-7%)
Market implied -6.2%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case $92.94 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (DG)

Bullish 5 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
4
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: A bullish sentiment prevails on StockTwits regarding $DG as traders expect the stock to break above $140 following hot CPI data. Walmart, Dollar General's rival, has received upgrades from three Wall Street firms ahead of its earnings.
Key Retail Themes: Bullish sentiment towards $DG Wall Street's upgrades for Walmart
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:51 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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