EXPD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPD - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$160.44
0.31 (0.19%)
▲
5d:
+1.55%
30d:
+6.08%
90d:
+9.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXPD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXPD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$191.86
Based on 3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPD is currently trading at $160.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.75 to $160.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.2) is in line with its historical norms (23.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $163.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $163.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$149.75 -
$160.01
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($146.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$149.75 -
$160.01
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$155.12
Resistance Level
$163.10
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.17
Wall Street Target
$146.38
(-8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.2 vs 23.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$158.84
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$157.25
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$155.67
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→24)
$160.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.2, Growth: 2.0%)
$170.16
(+6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 2.0%)
$160.93
(+0%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 2.0%)
$136.79
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.20
Bull Case
$196.75
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.7%, PE expands to 28.4
Base Case
$178.87
(+12%)
Market implied 11.7%, PE stable at 25.8
Bear Case
$108.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.2 to 23.9
Stabilization Target:
$165.52
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 07, 2026 11:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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