EXR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXR - Extra Space Storage, Inc.
$146.81
-0.45 (-0.31%)
▼
5d:
-0.74%
30d:
+0.96%
90d:
+2.02%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: EXR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$146.37
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXR is currently trading at $146.81, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.10 to $150.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.9) is in line with its historical norms (29.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$146.10 -
$150.01
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
20th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding EXR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 20th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($158.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (46/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$146.10 -
$150.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.01
(2.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.25
Resistance Level
$149.99
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.88
Wall Street Target
$158.20
(+7.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Profit Margin
27.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
30.9 vs 29.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.01
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$151.25
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$153.52
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$146.67
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.9, Growth: 4.5%)
$167.52
(+14%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 4.5%)
$108.89
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 4.5%)
$92.56
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.51
Bull Case
$170.78
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.4%, PE expands to 35.9
Base Case
$155.25
(+6%)
Market implied 5.4%, PE stable at 32.7
Bear Case
$100.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Joseph D Margolis
SELL
7500 shares
2026-03-13
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Advanced EXR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EXR price and gamma walls.
